[2025] Projecting Arbitration Extensions
My second attempt at forecasting extensions during team control.
Introduction
Last year, I wrote an analysis on the value of arbitration and pre-arbitration extensions, and along the way I discovered my own method of projecting them. One takes “base cases” - the salaries of player(s) that are most similar to the one in question during arbitration and/or free agency, and use that as the projection for those periods of time. As a way for the teams to get some value from the inherent risk of forfeiting team control, $5 million of “true value” is subtracted per year of the deal. Currently, I only use it for hitters (where they make the most sense and are the most popular anyway), and the system is inherently subjective based on what comparisons you want to make with the player in question. Still, I find it to be a strong baseline for what one can expect.
The one change I made since last year is a more defined value for inflation. The luxury tax cap increases about 3% per year, so I take that as the inflation rate. Last year, it was a little too vibes-based. I’d say $2 million per year either way is the margin of error in most cases.
Notable Extensions In the Past Year
Jackson Merrill - Last year’s projection [‘LYP’]: 10/154.5 - Real extension 10/156
The system isn’t so bad, huh? Regardless, I do think I undercut him a little last year - his FA estimate should have been a little bit higher. Well within the margin of error either way.
Cal Raleigh - LYP: N/A - Real extension 6/106
This certainly looks like a steal now. I didn’t project an extension for him, but the most similar comp from last year was Rutschman, who would have been offered $80 million over 6 years by my math. The comps weren’t particularly great, though, and one could argue Raleigh was more valuable at the time than Rutschman. Top catchers rarely hit the market.
New Players
Jeremy Pena
2 years of arbitration = $25 million (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)
X years of FA = $32 million/yr (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)
6-year extension = 25 + 32*4 - 5*6 = $123 million
8-year extension = 25 + 32*6 - 5*8 = $177 million
Pena likely will regress both offensively and defensively, but capable shortstops on both sides of the ball are considered valuable to teams. I project him an FA deal with the AAV of Swanson or Turner with inflation considered.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
1 year of minimum = $1 million
4 years of arbitration = $70 million (Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge as base)
X years of FA = $50 million/yr (Aaron Judge as base)
8-year extension = 1 + 70 + 50*3 - 5*8 = $181 million
10-year extension = 1 + 70 + 50*5 - 5*10 = $271 million
This may seem a little high to some, but PCA has looked the part of an 80-grade fielder with elite pulled flyball rates to supplement his power. Additionally, he will be Super-2 eligible for 2027, giving him a fourth arbitration year. His swing decisions are poor, he is platoon-heavy (for now), and is far more prone to injury with so much value derived from his legs. And yet, he paces for 25 FRV, 9 BsR, 40 HR, 40 SB, and 9 fWAR halfway through his age-23 season. How many can say that? The Cubs offered him a $75 million extension a few months ago, by the way. I think he may get that much in just his four arbitration years.
Roman Anthony
3 years of minimum = $3 million
3 years of arbitration = $35 million (Kyle Tucker, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)
X years of FA = $40 million/yr (Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)
8-year extension = 3 + 35 + 40*2 - 5*8 = $78 million
10-year extension = 3 + 35 + 40*4 - 5*10 = $148 million
This definitely feels low; the system doesn’t seem to work well with very young players where comparisons are hard to find. Then again, he was (allegedly) manipulated to avoid Super-2 designation, costing him an additional $25-30 million in his fourth arbitration year according to these projections. Jackson Chourio was guaranteed $78 million in his first 8 years and $128 million if the team picked up his 2 club options, which puts Anthony’s extension here in similar territory. My suspicion is that Anthony would require $100 million in the first 8 if he were to pull the trigger, far more than Campbell’s $60 million. From the Red Sox’s POV, there’s no reason to agree to such a high valuation until he proves he deserves it over a large sample. There’s some pull and flyball concerns in there still.
James Wood
2 years of minimum = $2 million
3 years of arbitration = $45 million (Kyle Tucker, Aaron Judge as base)
X years of FA = $50 million/yr (Aaron Judge as base)
8-year extension = 2 + 45 + 50*3 - 5*8 = $157 million
10-year extension = 2 + 45 + 50*5 - 5*10 = $247 million
I think James Wood is the truth (no offense to Paul Pierce). It’s paramount that the Nationals try to get him locked up now or they will be forced to let him out the door in a couple years’ time when the price becomes astronomical. Don't let Keibert Ruiz deter you! Pulling the ball is overrated anyway. (Please don't scroll one player up.)
Adjusted Players
Here’s an assortment of players I covered last year that deserve an update.
CJ Abrams (LYP: 10/185, 12/235)
3 years of arbitration = $30 million (Trea Turner as base)
X years of FA = $36 million/yr (Trea Turner as base)
8-year extension = 30 + 36*5 - 5*8 = $170 million
10-year extension = 30 + 36*7 - 5*10 = $232 million
Lots of Trea Turner vibes here, hence the comp.Offense-first shortstop with average defense at best. K rates down, EVs up.
Riley Greene (LYP: 10/185)
3 years of arbitration = $32 million (Brandon Nimmo, George Springer, Kyle Tucker as base)
X years of FA = $37.5 million/yr (Brandon Nimmo, George Springer, Aaron Judge, Corey Seager as base)
8-year extension = 32 + 37.5*5 - 5*8 = $179.5 million
10-year extension = 32 + 37.5*7 - 5*10 = $244.5 million
This seems a bit aggressive, but Greene looks like he’s really found his stride. His steep swing path (VBA) creates lots of damage, and he plays a serviceable center field. This year’s improvement in damage comes with a more proactive approach, lending credence to its sustainability.
Elly de la Cruz (LYP: 10/221, 12/291)
1 year of minimum = 1 million
3 years of arbitration - $47 million (Nolan Arenado as base)
X years of FA - $45 million/yr (Nolan Arenado as base)
10-year extension = 1 + 47 + 45*6 - 5*10 = $268 million
12-year extension = 1 + 47 + 45*8 - 5*12 = $348 million
Athletic’s preseason 12-year prediction: $330 million
Elly has cemented himself as a top-10 player in the league for me this year, posting a near 6 fWAR pace despite hefty defensive regression. One could argue he should be at the coveted $50 million per year mark in FA, which would make the figures even more astronomical. Also, I’m not sure why I predicted Super 2 eligibility last year. He appears to be well short.
Jasson Dominguez
1 year of minimum = $1 million
4 years of arbitration = $45 million (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)
X years of FA = $30 million/yr (Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich as base)
8-year extension = 1 + 45 + 30*3 - 5*8 = $96 million
10-year extension = 1 + 45 + 30*5 - 5*10 = $146 million
Another tough one. Dominguez will likely be Super-2 eligible (Abrams wasn’t at the same service time, for what it’s worth) and has demonstrated heavy platoon splits thus far. I could see a large upward adjustment next season if he presents serviceable numbers vs LHP. If not Super 2 eligible, subtract $15-20 million.
Anthony Volpe (LYP: 10/156)
3 years of arbitration = $25 million (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)
X years of FA = $27.5 million/yr (Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner as base)
8-year extension = 25 + 27.5*5 - 5*8 = $122.5 million
10-year extension = 25 + 27.5*7 - 5*10 = $167.5 million
There’s some serious offensive concerns with Volpe, who has now been below average three years in a row. That said, Swanson was also a late bloomer (first above average year at 26) and still managed to score $27 million per year with average hitting and elite shortstop defense. If you’re going to extend Volpe, you’re at least buying into some offensive improvement.
Gunnar Henderson (LYP: 10/276, 12/356)
3 years of arbitration = $50 million (Juan Soto as base)
X years of FA = $45 million/yr (Aaron Judge, Juan Soto as base)
10-year extension = 50 + 45*7 - 5*10 = $320 million
12-year extension = 50 + 45*9 - 5*12 = $400 million
This one was the hardest of all of them. How much do I weigh this year, where he has struggled to square the ball up and keep the chase rate down after injury, in relation to the prior two? In the end, I kept the projections the same - the difference between LYP and this one is simply replacing a year of the minimum with an FA year. Soto may not be the best base case, but reflects the crazy young age his talent will be hitting FA.
Conclusion
Hopefully I was a little more objective this year with my predictions. I might include pitchers next year - they’re so infrequent, though, that it may not be worth the bother.
Sources
Spotrac
BaseballReference
iStock for image