2025 SPs to Watch: Sean Burke
The White Sox are quietly building their own pitching philosophy, most recently showcased by rookie Sean Burke.
Introduction
Despite making just three starts and finishing only 19 innings, there’s clear upside in young South Side starter Sean Burke. He brings a well-constructed four-pitch set from a high slot and 7 feet of extension to the table with the intention of overpowering hitters in the zone. Burke’s archetype demonstrates a consistent trend in the White Sox organization to prioritize large, tall pitchers; other notable names include recently traded Garrett Crochet, top prospect Noah Schultz, and if you want to go back a few years, Chris Sale.
Pitch Mix
His fastball is the selling point, with the potential to consistently overwhelm hitters at the top of the zone. It comes in at a hard 96 with elite carry (18 inches of vertical break) and his long limbs enable it to feel a lot hotter than that. He has already demonstrated the intention to pound it up, which is always a good sign for a young pitcher in a historically questionable pitching development environment. The pitch sees 3 more inches of carry than a hitter would expect from his slot, which is a hefty amount of deception. It is already a well above-average offering.
Sean Burke’s fastball is well above-average from its great carry on elite extension.
The slider comes in at a hard 87 and was the breadwinner in his few MLB outings. It runs a tight 10.5-inch tunnel with the 4-seam, which gives it the propensity to be hit hard, but also the opportunity to reap great swing-and-miss rewards. Its outlier vertical break makes it likely to be above-average in the long run and it too is already aggressively used over the plate. It probably overperformed a bit in his small sample with a 39% CSW and 43% whiff rate on poor location, but it should still play if it elicits whiffs above a 35% clip. If properly kept down to play off the 4-seam, it could soar to staggering heights in the chase and whiff departments.
The curve was a prototypical strike stealer that also could mitigate damage well with its great drop. He turned to it frequently in September and it gives a very different vibe than the rest of his overpowering, beat-you-to-the-spot arsenal. My one critique would be to push it to 81 or 82 mph and adopt a true 12-6 feel. Its current variation with 5.5 inches of run doesn't fit either curveball camp, so I think he should go all-in on what's working (the 19% whiff rate on it certainly wasn't). His slider demonstrates he can throw a mile or two harder than the average on his breaking stuff, and a hard curveball will often allow him a head start in the count.
The changeup has fantastic upside with the shape of Garrett Crochet’s slowball (7.5 inches of vert, 16 inches of run) at the same extension. Unfortunately, Burke does not have the gift of throwing it 91 - a meager 85 will have to do - but it will undoubtedly play a key role against LHB if he wants to succeed. It gets great separation from the fastball and can be lethal down in the zone when the 4-seam is right upstairs. If he can be confident enough with it to use it 1 out of 5 times against LHB, I think Burke is set to be the frontline guy for a team that desperately needs one.
Conclusion
There are a lot of possible outcomes here. If he can locate his 4-seam up and his changeup and slider down, he may eat everyone up with ease to a 3.50 ERA. If his 4-seam is all over the place and he keeps his changeup at the 6% usage it was in ‘24, he will get knocked around with his mix that only has 12 inches of width to it. I’d forecast an ERA just north of 4 composed of some stellar starts that get you dreaming, but also abysmal ones that are just as frequent with pitches all over the zone and the outfield grass. For a one-line comparison, Burke gives me the vibes of old White Sock Dylan Cease from the very early days of his career, without the same echelon of stuff to look forward to.
Sources
PitcherList
BaseballSavant
Max Bay’s Dead Zone Visualization App
Great read!