2025 SPs to Watch: Tobias Myers

The Brewers uncovered a gem in the Rule 5 draft. How good can he be?

Introduction

Tobias Myers may not look like an underrated pitcher on the surface after posting a 3.00 ERA in 138 rookie innings, but his raw approach meant the results weren't at all repeatable without major adjustments. All of the auxiliary statistics to predict future ERA settled in around 4.00, and neither his contact quality nor his swing-and-miss stood out substantially amongst his peers. That isn’t particularly surprising given his Rule-5 status, but it offers the Brewers the unique opportunity to make an already successful lottery ticket even better. In particular, he struggled to keep his breaking pitches down to maximize the elite carry of his 4-seam, the key piece on the path to becoming the strikeout machine he’s well-positioned to become.

Pitches

The fastball sits 93 mph with solid extension and elite vertical movement. The over-the-top slot doesn’t make it as flat as a fastball like Joe Ryan’s, which, in turn, makes it less deceptive, yet it elicited chases all the same. Its location was strewn across the zone, allowing a 42% ICR on 40% usage against both sides of the plate, which may have been generous given the circumstances. As a whole, the average shape beyond the vertical movement necessitates an emphasis on the top of the zone to get value out of the elite chase rate it's garnering.

The cutter is surprisingly similar to Corbin Burnes’ 2024 edition in shape (apart from a 6 mph velocity difference), yet struggles to make much of an impact. It especially struggled against LHB, with a 46% ICR and a pitiful 12% whiff rate, the demographic it’s meant to succeed with. Far too many cutters are drifting on the outer third to be punished, and it certainly doesn’t move enough to steal strikes backdoor. Some extra sweep may be beneficial, but its current 3.5 inches on 11 inches of vert should be more than enough to be at least average in results. I'd argue this is the most crucial pitch to rein in for future stability.

Next is his changeup, which comes straight from the Kutter Crawford playbook with plenty of vertical and little arm-side break. The separation with the 4-seam is only 7 inches horizontally, which feels low for a pitch that lags 12 mph behind, but opposing hitters couldn’t do anything with it. That fact is even more impressive considering he had less command of it than any other pitch; it missed up and away an alarmingly high amount, yet still maintained a 44% whiff rate and 18% swinging strike rate. The 26% chase rate - 7% below league average - is a sign that hitters aren’t fooled on where it’s going, yet they still can’t square it up; a 75 mph average EV against LHB is diabolical for a pitch thrown one time in five. Myers' offspeed is about as close to a Bugs Bunny changeup you're gonna get, and if he can refine the command to even league-average level, it will carry on at an elite level.

The curveball is 12-6, with below-average depth, but underwhelms on low usage with a velocity of just 78 mph. Myers is no flamethrower, but I imagine it will need to be pushed up a tick or two to make any sort of impact. The whiffs aren’t there, and it gets barreled up far too often despite being a surprise on 4% usage across the board. It’s possible it doesn’t even return next season with the assortment of other solid options to turn to.

Lastly comes his slider, perhaps his most curious pitch. It sweeps just 4.5 inches, creating another tight tunnel with the fastball at three-quarters of a foot. The cutter also moves about as much horizontally, providing the opportunity to replace the slider with a more sweeper-esque shape instead. He could easily go for 8 or 9 inches on the slider, if not more, diversifying his pitch portfolio and giving his cutter some more space to breathe. The current slider is mediocre in movement with a bang-on average velocity of 85.5 and performs well with the solid command he has on it, but it lacks the interesting characteristics that his fastball, cutter, and changeup all possess. A sweeper with some of his trademark carry could fit right in and contribute against RHB.

He flirted with a sinker sparingly throughout the year, and it fits his style. The 11 inches of run is starkly below average with that great carry, making it an interesting consideration. The only concern would be redundancy; he doesn’t desperately need another pitch to beat RHB with his 4-seam and cutter on the fringe of viability against LHB and the chance to take the more natural addition of the sweeper instead. Thus far in Spring Training, he has not thrown any to my eye in Statcast-tracked games.

A breakdown of Tobias Myers’ arsenal, courtesy of TJStats’ Pitching Summary.

Conclusion

Tobias Myers has some real tools at his disposal with his fastball/cutter/slider/changeup core. The command needs serious work despite an average walk rate, and he could do a better job with pitch separation as well on both sides of the plate. I believe that he can run a 3.80 ERA with the innings to qualify for an ERA title given typical off-season growth for a rookie arm, but he could push a 3.60 or better with more serious developments in his game. Without improvement, however, things could really go sideways; a 4.25 ERA or above with his erratic tendencies is well within the realm of possibility.

In other news, I plan to release Part 2 of my Top 50 Players for 2025 sometime next week. I hope you're looking forward to it! Thanks for reading.

Sources

PitcherList

FanGraphs

TJStats' Pitcher Summary/Spring Training Pitch Dashboard