Are the Royals for Real?
The Royals have been the best team in baseball so far. How much of it is sustainable?
Introduction
After a miserable 2023 season that produced just 56 wins and an average deficit of 1.12 runs per game, the Royals have come out swinging in 2024. They’ve outpaced their opponents by 1.7 runs per game thus far (+56 run differential, 1st in MLB), with a Pythagorean record of 23-10, and have shown no true weakness. Such success would justify their $100 million offseason, but can it be sustained? I’m going to take a comprehensive look at their team so far this season to determine if they have a real chance to sneak in and steal the AL Central crown.
Offense
The talisman of the Royals’ offense is Bobby Witt, who is fresh off an extension and a player that I rated very highly entering the season, even relative to other lists. He showed real progression in 2023, becoming more disciplined and unlocking more power to supplement his super speed. That trend has continued; he is now elite in almost every offensive category. Currently, he’s up 4 mph in 90th percentile exit velocity (EV) and average EV from a year ago, and has elected to be generally more aggressive in the zone for power, conceding some extra whiffs in the process. His better decisions have allowed his SEAGER to improve from an above-average 18.3 to an elite 24.2, which was the last true weakness in his game, if you could even call it one. I don't think he’s going to be Corey Seager with wheels all season, but my aggressive prediction of Witt as the 13th-best player in baseball for this season may look conservative by October.
Pasquatch is a personal favorite of mine for his extremely well-rounded game. He’s renowned for his discipline; before tearing his shoulder labrum, he managed to strike out only as much as he walked, with average power numbers on a heavy diet of pulled balls in the air. This year, he has only expanded on his strengths - he has increased his walk rate from a solid 9.6% to a great 14%, while limiting his strikeout rate to just 10.5%, and manages to find a way to still pull the ball 42% the remainder of the time. He has become more passive in general, but it hasn’t hurt his contact quality or strikeout rates at all. In fact, he already has a higher max EV in 2024 than in 2023, despite only 40% as many PAs. I see Vinnie as a young Freddie, with the major differentiator being swing path. Freeman routinely runs elite swing paths for quality of contact with vertical bat angles consistently above 40°, while Vinnie only is 30° at best, demonstrated most clearly by their 14% difference in groundball rate. Otherwise, he’s the full package for an offense-oriented first baseman, with plenty of areas to continue to improve in.
The other centerpiece of the Royals’ offense so far is Salvador Perez. He’s matched Witt in quality of contact while playing above-average defense, a skill that’s consistently regressed as he’s aged. I’m not buying this stock, though. His contact rate has increased by 10%, while maintaining top-of-the-line power, surpassing even his absolute peak in the mid-2010s. He’s pulling the ball more compared to last season, returning to career norms, and that may stick around. But his high level of aggression precedes him, and it seems a little too good to be true for a full season, especially at age 33. We’re not talking reinventing someone like Tyler O’Neill (28) or even Ryan O’Hearn (30).
Salvador Perez has been better this year in many areas than he has at any point in his career. I’m not buying the career year, but he could still contribute more than any year since 2021.
Maikel Garcia was a common breakout pick, and the power has certainly come. He will have at least as many home runs at the end of April as he did all of last season, and he’s a bona fide threat on the bases. He deserves much better than he’s got so far as well - he’s underperformed his xWOBA by 40 points and has made moderate improvements to all areas of his game, from pulled flyball rates, to exit velocities, to SEAGER. People may have hoped for more than an above-average leadoff hitter, but without further progression in quality of contact, that’s all he looks to be for now on offense.
I feel like outfielders MJ Melendez and Nelson Velazquez are cut from the same cloth. They’re both 25-year-old power hitters with plenty of swing-and-miss and limited defensive value, which makes them only as tolerable, and as valuable a player, as their offensive performance allows. While Melendez has shown some signs of improvement, Velazquez has been underwhelming to begin his season. Melendez has cut his K rate by 5% and maintained quality barrel rates, albeit at the cost of worse groundball and pull rates in exchange. Velazquez has gotten the opposite end of things, launching just 2 HR in his first 90 PA after getting 17 in just 180 PA last season. Velazquez’s big fault is in his ability to punish breaking balls; while he punished fastballs with so much authority last year that it didn’t matter, this year, he’s been merely very good against them. That’s exposed his glaring weakness of 45+% whiff rates against them, which is a must-fix for major-league relevancy. The depth of the lineup relies on these outfielders’ production, with the likely regression of Perez incoming.
The two players are remarkably similar (I’d expect their average EVs to even out), but Velazquez’s great decision-making is hampered by a hole in his swing against soft stuff.
The rest of the usual suspects are less interesting. Hunter Renfroe is no more than a platoon DH these days, and even that specific skill set appears to be declining with his power. Adam Frazier is a toolsy second baseman, but his 25th-percentile speed makes him much less of an infield-hit and base-stealing threat than in years past. Finally, Kyle Isbel is a 27-year-old outfielder without any standout qualities aside from his great defense.
Summed up: is this Royals offense going to be a dependable unit? No. Salvador Perez is not peak Mike Piazza at 33, and Renfroe and Isbel make it hard to justify calling this even an above-average lineup. Garcia and Melendez are due for some better performance, and Pasquantino could add another level to his game with a decline in groundball rate, but I think the bottom of the order is simply too weak. Freddy Fermin and Michael Massey are two promising players on the rise, the former moving Perez to DH duties with his great defense and the latter moving Frazier to the OF (assuming one ignores Massey’s defensive concerns… -9 DRS in 800 2B innings), which could make them a serious contender to be top 10 if things go right, like Velazquez returning to a 30+ HR threat and Salvador Perez retaining some of these improvements. Otherwise, this feels like a lineup that loses its teeth 4 or 5 hitters deep.
Pitching
The Royals’ offense has a path to becoming above-average, but what about the pitching? Don't forget that they trotted out Jordan Lyles, Zack Greinke, and Brady Singer last year for more than 450 innings at an ERA above 5, with Brad Keller, Daniel Lynch, and Alec Marsh running ERAs all above 4.5 in more short-term time in the rotation. Their savior from Texas, Cole Ragans, is a valuable addition and adds stability to the top of the rotation (ignoring that forsaken Baltimore start). I’ll cover him last because the more pressing question is the following: can the rest of the rotation hold strong?
Shockingly, the best of the bunch thus far has been Seth Lugo, after agreeing to a 3-year/$45 million deal this past December, but his performance doesn't move me. In terms of results, he dominated the Chi Sox, Twins, and Tigers(x2), then was alright against the Sox again, but only escaped the Orioles and Astros by the skin of his teeth. He’s down a mile an hour from last year, and his only major changes are an emphasis on low fastballs, after previously pounding them upstairs, and a modified curve shape that trades in 3 inches of vertical break for 3 inches of horizontal break, bringing it more in line with other sliders. I’d argue the command of his sinker, curve, and slider are all worse than last year, and in combination with his lower velocities, I think Lugo is due for some serious regression. If his ERA wasn’t near 4 by the end of the year (it sits at 1.60 currently), I’d be shocked.
Brady Singer brought back his four-seam after putting it on the shelf since 2020, but it has only reminded everyone why it was benched in the first place. Mediocre characteristics and few swings means it prays for called strikes, but it’s horribly located, making it just a way to get behind in the count early. Otherwise, he’s a sinker/slider pitcher, but his sinker falls flat for the role it’s entrusted. It’s been located better low in the zone, but it’s spotty, and if that goes away, he’s back to the same position as he was for the past three years. His slider has always performed, but with nothing else, he can’t get far. Singer can grow into a stable arm, but he needs a true third pitch to distinguish himself and earn my confidence. I think I believe in him more than Lugo, for what it’s worth.
Wacha Flocka keeps the same dominating changeup, albeit with less usage than I’d like, and a fastball and curve that earn their keep. His fastball played up last year after adjustments to that changeup, creating more separation, although I’m a little skeptical of continued growth into a 31% CSW offering, 3% more than last season. Meanwhile, his curve steals plenty of strikes, and he has thrown it even more in the zone this season. That feels like a location issue rather than an approach issue, though, with plenty of mistakes in the middle of the zone that are prone to punishment with their heavy preference for early count usage (84%). Wacha is always prone to be hit around, despite his low strikeout approach, but he should be sufficient as a back-end starter with three fairly dependable pitches.
The last starter was Alec Marsh, but an IL stint means the likely short-term answer is Daniel Lynch. Marsh’s fastball/slider has a nice, compact 12-inch tunnel, and his curveball is decent, but his sinker and changeup let him down. He’s a nice back-end arm, similar to Wacha. Lynch is completely uninspiring, by the way - the changeup and curveball are solid, but the fastball is crushed on high usage and the slider is erratic and doesn’t do much of anything. Lynch’s career numbers (4.60 ERA, 4.57 xERA, 4.55 xFIP) do him plenty of justice.
It’s finally time to talk about Cole Ragans. Despite his horrific Orioles start, I think Ragans has proved he’s an elite arm. He handled the Twins, Mets, Blue Jays, and Orioles (in their first go-around) with ease, and survived an off-day against the Astros (still 16 whiffs on 99 pitches, of course) to go 5 innings anyway. He’s maintained his 4.5 mph leap in four-seam velocity from last season, creating a serious opportunity for growth in his changeup, which is seen while staying pat at 86 mph. His slider is the main source of regression, but I don't think it deserves a 25% whiff rate with a standard 14 inches of horizontal break differential, 10 mph speed differential, and a great cutter as a bridge. It smells like it stems from a small sample to me, and whether Ragans is a top-5 or top-15 pitcher is of little consequence to the Royals with the state of the rest of their rotation. He appears to be much closer to the former than the latter, of course.
The bullpen remains strong, despite the departure of Aroldis Chapman, shipped off for the aforementioned Cole Ragans, and Scott Barlow. James McArthur currently holds the crown, with three quality offerings, headlined by a 48% CSW and 52% whiff rate slider (?!?) that have propelled him toward the front of the top reliever conversation, and makes him a premier candidate to convert into a starter for the long-term. McArthur replaces back-to-back-to-back World Series Champion Will Smith in the closer role, who has made some adjustments for the worse. He lost some faith in his slider, which he threw historically 45-50% of the time, to make room for a brand-new changeup on 15% usage that he locates poorly and gets no chases on. His curve was a tried-and-true strike stealer, but poor location has hurt its performance, and he’s lost over an mph on his fastball, which has never been adverse to hard contact. I don't think he’s lost his ability to pitch in high-leverage, but he may have to turn back the clock to his 2023 pitch mix. John Schreiber has a 0.69 ERA so far with a kitchen-sink approach, but there isn’t much that excites me there. Angel Zerpa is their go-to lefty arm outside of Smith, but outside of a quality sinker, there is nothing else saving this Angel.
McArthur’s pitches - curve, slider, and sinker (L-R) - form a uniquely sturdy mix that creates missed swings and soft contact.
Pitching-wise, I don't think there’s much promise here. Ragans, Wacha, and Singer are a fine top 3 with some more consistency, but Lugo is mediocre and every possible 5th option would be punching above their weight in the majors. With few possible replacements on the farm, they’ll have to get creative to build a rotation that is capable of playoff success.The bullpen is average at best (currently 9th in ERA), with McArthur and an assortment of serviceable arms.
Defense
The Royals have improved significantly so far on defense, maintaining a top-5 position in Outs Above Average (OAA) from 2023, while improving significantly in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The discrepancy comes from DRS fading elite OAA defenders like Witt and Garcia heavily, but this year they’re generally in agreement about their skills. In addition, universally-condemned defenders have either been out of the 2024 starting lineup, like Edward Olivares (-7 OAA/-9 DRS), Michael Massey (3 OAA/-9 DRS), and Nick Pratto (-6 OAA/-6 DRS), or improved significantly, like the aforementioned infielders and MJ Melendez (-11 OAA/-11 DRS, presently 0 OAA/2 DRS).
Kyle Isbel remains elite in CF, and the defensive improvements and addition of Adam Frazier have allowed them to remain great in the field despite dropping defensive specialists like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Drew Waters to play more mediocre defenders like Nelson Velazquez. At the catcher position, Perez has improved immensely. After -11 DRS and -9 framing runs in 2023, he’s posted 3 DRS and 0.7 framing runs in 153 innings to this point. Fermin is so good, though, that this transformation only matches Fermin’s great play in 500 innings last season when prorated. There’s no need to waste Salvy’s energy behind the plate, so I suspect Fermin will remain the primary catcher. The Royals pride themselves on their defense, and that identity is well-earned this season; they can be a top-5 defensive team in a park that makes that type of range valuable.
Conclusion
I don't see as much growth in guys like Brady Singer, MJ Melendez, Nelson Velazquez, and the back half of the rotation as I would have expected with the team’s solid results so far. The rotation has no dependable SP2 or SP3, and virtually no depth in the minors, even if the lineup hits the very high end of their range of possible outcomes for the rest of the season. The style of pitching for Wacha, Lugo, and Singer fits their strong defense, but I don't think it’s quite enough to make a playoff case. Without more starting pitching help, which would almost certainly come through free agency (what trade assets do they have?), I don't think any amount of realistic offensive progression makes them a playoff team. I’ll forecast them for 79 wins this season, 3 more than the Pirates had last year after a similarly hot start, ruling them out of divisional contention. PECOTA predicts them for 78.9, which means it’s a well-substantiated forecast. I promise I didn’t check beforehand!
Sources
PitcherList
FanGraphs
Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard
BaseballSavant