My Top 50 MLB Players for 2024, Part 2 (26-50)
It's time for the much more challenging part of the top 50 ranking - the latter 25.
I’m back for part 2. A couple of things, like last time:
As with last year, I view injuries generally as noise. There are a few exceptions (Buxton, Kershaw, Trout, etc.) who deserve it as a consideration, but I remember when Aaron Judge was considered injury-prone and Max Fried was an anchor in the rotation. People get hurt, it happens.
I exclude all players unlikely to play most of the year, so guys like McClanahan and Woodruff also miss the list. I only considered Ohtani’s hitting this year in line with this rule. I don't think it’d make much sense otherwise.
Think of it like a fantasy draft ranking, based on prorated performance next season, with position taken into account (assuming sufficient guaranteed playing time). The valuations are based on batting FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) per 650 plate appearances and pitching Baseball Reference WAR (rWAR) per 180 innings pitched, to make it concrete.
My aim for this year was to be much more aggressive in my rankings after the success of so many rookies last season. I think I fulfilled that aspiration, but you can be the judge. Here we go:
Pablo Lopez - 28 - SP - Minnesota Twins (2023 Rank: UR)
Lopez lacks any real weakness in his arsenal. In years past, ways to beat right-handed hitters escaped him, relying on fastballs, changeups, and sinkers to cobble outs together. A new sweeper changed that, and unlike many other sweepers, found great success in both swings and misses (17.4% swinging strike rate) and contact mitigation (23.8% ICR) against righties, while also being above-average against lefties in more sparse usage. A better-commanded curve induced tons of swings at the bottom of the zone, in part from mirroring spin with the new sweeper. Lopez is one of few pitchers who can stack up the Ks while avoiding barrels, by locating his deep mix incredibly consistently.
His main struggle is now against lefties, where he uses primarily heaters and changeups to mitigate damage. The path of least resistance to improvement would be a better curve; it got killed when it was put in play, which probably happened more than it deserved, for what it’s worth, and the cutter that he abandoned for the sweeper may be a useful addition. I lamented the high usage of his sinker despite its removal when I first wrote about Lopez several months ago, but I’ve retracted that belief. It avoids contact too well, and is a passable solution to his most pressing problem.
Gunnar Henderson - 22 - SS - Baltimore Orioles (2023 Rank: UR)
The Orioles' young shortstop was remarkably consistent in 2023 and showed an altered approach from the one he demonstrated in his brief appearance in ‘22. He became much more aggressive, chasing nearly 10% more throughout the season and taking free passes only 5% of the time in the second half, after posting a walk rate easily over 12% in the first. One of my key concerns from his debut last year was his groundball rate, and he managed to drop that from a scary 57.3% to a more reasonable 45.8% at just age 22. His heavy-pull approach is perfect for the modern Camden Yards, and he has shown the potential to be a consistent 30-35 HR hitter in the future.
The main issue he has now is his platooning. He runs just a .617 OPS against left-handed pitchers, with only 12 HR/650 PA and a dismal .115 ISO. The Orioles dropped him in the order dramatically whenever the opposing starter was one, and that obviously limits his value. Nonetheless, his production against right-handed pitchers is more than good enough for the time being, and there are few options to supplant him in the order against lefties anyway.
One also has to mention his defense. He was good for +10 DRS while splitting time at 3B and SS, with the arm and range to play either position. With the development that Holiday is going to play second, Gunnar will likely remain at short, with Mayo or Westburg manning third. But if this past season is any indication, that will be just fine with him. He's 100th percentile in baserunning value, despite just 10 steals, thanks to elite judgment on when to take the extra base. According to Savant, he was perfect on his 69 attempts to advance, demonstrating Baseball IQ far beyond his years. As long as nobody worries about his attempted steal against the Rangers (which likely wasn't even his fault), it's all good in Gunnar's 'hood.
28. Manny Machado - 31 - 3B - San Diego Padres (2023 Rank: 23)
I remember when Manny Machado was a consensus top-10 player! (Don’t look at where I put Burnes above.) Many will blame Machado’s wrist or some other idiosyncrasy, but his most recent performance perfectly fits into the trend of inconsistent play that has followed Manny for his entire career. He remains a great defender and a capable bat, but people bought way too much into a season that lacked any true otherworldly qualities, writing off a BABIP completely out of line with his career norms for reasons that never really would stand up to a sturdy line of questioning. His main struggle this year was passivity - he took 5% more pitches inside the zone while chasing and whiffing at the same rate. Machado is a consistently great player, and I expect a better year out of him next year, but don’t expect an elite level of performance. A 130 wRC+ (it was 112 this past season) would be fantastic.
Machado continued his inconsistent performance in 2023, despite lofty expectations.
Corbin Burnes - 29 - SP - Milwaukee Brewers (2023 Rank: 9)
I’m sure people aren’t happy with Burnes’ continual regression since his dominant 2021 season (as I am with my ranking of him), which has been a slow and steady decline. He ranked #1 in 2023 Stuff+, despite losing the ability to induce whiffs year over year from poor command. His once absurd cutter is down 7% in chase rate and 11% in whiff rate to simply make it very good, his curveball gives up more hard contact and elicits fewer whiffs, possibly due to added break that makes it too distinguishable, and a changeup that went from an elite 47% whiff rate to a more middling 30%, also off location degradation. His slider remained great, but he uses it only 8% of the time. No pitch experienced a massive dropoff in one year, but they all have had slight regression two years in a row, and a loss of a tick of velocity across the board in this past one. A death from a thousand cut(ter)s.
There are still some hopeful signs to cling on to, though. His pitch mix is virtually unchanged since 2021, and he allowed more groundballs than ever. In fact, he led the NL in WHIP this season. That’s not the sign of someone who’s on the brink of collapse, but his mix relies almost entirely on the cutter. It lost an inch and a half of horizontal break, leading to it being the only pitch to allow more flyballs this season than the one before. If he can get that back to form, he should be completely fine. Don't forget about the pitch clock: he had to shave 5 sec off his time between pitches, which may play into the loss of velocity and command.
Tyler Glasnow - 30 - Los Angeles Dodgers (2023 Rank: UR)
I battled myself a lot on this one, as his inability to stay on the field makes ranking him almost pointless to rank in most years. But I often judge players’ injury proneness on the contracts they’re offered, and the Dodgers seem confident in his health after offering him a three-year extension before ever making a start. The Dodgers may play it safe with some six-man rotations and extended rest, but Glasnow should be healthy enough to rank here.
On a prorated basis, there is no doubt Glasnow is a top-5 pitcher in the league. His 6’8” frame gives him insane extension and makes his pitches play even better than they already should. His three primary pitches from last season, fastball, curve, and slider, are separated by only 3.5 inches of horizontal break, and have perfect separation in both vertical break and velocity. This is a double-edged sword, as it makes all of the pitches look the same out of the hand, but throwing only three pitches that only vary by height allows him to get crushed when there’s bat on ball. The Dodgers have added a sinker to his arsenal this season, thrown just three times in his debut against the Padres, to add a pitch outside of this particular tunnel.
Glasnow has three pitches equidistant from another, centered at 0 inches of horizontal break. How will his new sinker affect his performance?
His primary pitch is his fastball, which sits at 96.5, but plays more like 98 or 99 based on his extension. It gets a ton of groundballs and called strikes from his great tunneling and his propensity to throw it low in the zone. His slider lives in the zone a bit more than it maybe should, leading to quite a bit of hard contact, but it still performs at an elite rate nonetheless. His curve is the key to his kingdom, creating whiffs on more than half of induced swings and an elite amount of chases, even in a 2023 season that saw it underperform from a few too many landing middle-middle.
There’s no question about Glasnow’s talent. Since 2019, his worst SIERA in a season (his 6.2 IP 2022 season excluded) is 3.18, xFIP is 2.94, PLA (ERA based on PLV) is 3.49, xERA is 3.55, DRA- is 74, and CSW is 32.7%. He pitches as if he was created in a swing-and-miss lab; his entire arsenal and frame are created to fool hitters out of the hand, and doesn’t care about what may come on a ball in play. One can only imagine what he may look like this year if the new sinker adds another layer to his game.
Rafael Devers - 27 - 3B - Boston Red Sox (2023 Rank: 35)
The Red Sox have Austin Riley at home in the form of Rafael Devers. Both are incredibly consistent offensively, but Devers lacks the athleticism that Riley uses to be an above-average defender and baserunner, as opposed to Devers’ poor performance in both categories.
Defensively, he has the fourth-lowest DRS amongst all players since 2021 (albeit with far more innings than anyone around him), and only trails Alec Bohm for third basemen, and his motor has gone from average to poor in the past few years, sapping any sort of baserunning value he once provided. Devers has taken some offensive strides to compensate, though: a strong 11.4% pulled flyball rate, a consistent, solid 42% groundball rate for the past three years, and fewer whiffs and chases, while staying aggressive in the zone. He ranks top 10 in SEAGER for qualified hitters and is in the 90th percentile in virtually every batted ball category. Devers is an offensive menace, but I don't see much more room for serious growth in his game aside from further improvements to his discipline and a better swing path (28° VBA, well below average, according to SwingGraphs).
Michael Harris II - 23 - OF - Atlanta Braves (2023 Rank: 48)
Harris already plays at such a capable level that people may forget he is only 23 years old, already improving in key areas like hard-hit rate, K rate, and flyball rate. Interestingly, the second improvement came despite a drop in SEAGER from an average 14 to a pitiful 5, creating far more contact on pitches in the zone in the exchange. It seems to be workingin any event; the fact that he was able to level up his power and batted ball distribution anyway is a testament to what his peak may entail. He’s shaping up very similarly to Bobby Witt, albeit without the same baserunning capabilities. But the defense may outdo him and the bat may be near his equal, and that’s an extremely impressive possibility for a former third-round pick. Did you know that he’s already locked up until 2032 and is slated to hit 6th in the order? Tough team to move up the order in, and to beat.
Alex Bregman - 30 - 3B - Houston Astros (2023 Rank: 33)
Bregman didn't surprise anybody in 2023, but did experience slight regression in his most critical assets. He’s the king of pulled flyballs for cheap home runs into the Crawford Boxes, but his lowest pull rate since 2017 saw him go from 14.5% pulled flyball rate or so to just 11.5%, a significant drop from roughly the top 10 to the top 25. He also swung in the zone 4% less and 1.5% more, selling out for contact at the cost of some plate patience. While these changes aren’t critical on their own, they are the primary drivers of Bregman’s success. Relative to players of his caliber, he doesn’t hit the ball hard, doesn’t punish breaking balls, is no threat on the bases, and his defense at third is good, but nothing outstanding. I would guess it’s more year-to-year variance than the start of a decline, but a similar season from Bregman in 2024 could hurt his odds of returning to Houston or getting a big payday astronomically.
Max Fried - 30 - SP - Atlanta Braves (2023 Rank: 45)
Max Fried was injured for half of last season, but his 77 innings of work presented no cause for alarm. He’s Snell-esque in his approach of avoiding the zone with breaking balls, with none of his 5 primary pitches finding the zone even half the time. It appears to be a conscious trend, with him finding the zone less and less with each passing year, but his numbers haven’t suffered one bit. It doesn’t even require outlier chase rates, which is what propelled Snell - just swings and misses from the curve and change, and tons and tons of groundballs. Normally, he runs a 51% groundball rate, but in his half-season in 2023, it was 60%! Also, he saw more strikeouts than ever, at an above-average 25.7%.
It’s all built on the back of a great curve and changeup (sound familiar?) and a slider and fastball that both play their part. The key distinction is that Fried doesn’t carry the sky-high walk rates that Snell does, while achieving the same goal. Everyone talks about the curve, but put some respect on the changeup’s name; it generates groundballs nearly 72% of the time with a 38% whiff rate, 19.5% swinging strike rate, and 34% ICR. It’s also given up just one home run in the two years he’s featured it.
Fried doesn’t rank higher because I’m not sure if the improved groundball and strikeout rates will stick - his fastball doesn’t scream 57% groundball rate to me, and none of his arsenal ran career-norm CSW and swinging strike rates. Fried is as consistent as they come, but if a team scoops him up in free agency and pushes him to the next level, he could become unbelievable.
35. Zach Eflin - 29 - Tampa Bay Rays (2023 Rank: UR)
Eflin takes a spot on my list, the only one he’s gotten on from the 11 I’ve seen, thanks to a zone-peppering approach that should lead to great consistency. His arrival to Tampa Bay unlocked a greater ceiling from his always-solid floor. For example, his sinker was always effective in Philadelphia, but had always leaked over the plate too much in years past. A deeper repertoire with a new cutter allowed it to perform at the best level it ever has, and while I’m skeptical that it will be able to repeat its level of performance again, it should still be an elite offering. That new cutter was exceptional this year, stealing strikes down and away against right-handed hitters with regularity. He could certainly ramp up its usage this year with its strong performance, especially considering he only runs 3 pitches. Lastly, he has his curveball, which matched its production from last year despite falling in the zone 10% more often. He messed with its shape in the offseason to create some room for the cutter, creating more whiffs in the meanwhile, and leaving open the possibility to incorporate a new sweeper full-time as well. In 6% usage against RHB, which are currently his primary nemesis, it had a 31.6% swinging-strike rate, 58.3% chase rate, and was located extremely well. A more incorporated sweeper could propel him even further than this.
Zach Eflin has three great pitches (his four-seam fastball blob is deceptively large), with a sweeper starting to appear as well.
Trea Turner - 30 - SS - Philadelphia Phillies (2023 Rank: 20)
My article on Trea Turner continues to age well, which cited his decreasing groundball rate and increasing whiff rate as a problematic sign for his long-term performance, with some lighter, but lingering concerns about the immediate future. He once again set a career-worst groundball rate in 2023, and posted a strikeout rate higher than any year since 2016. He had a far better second half, which salvaged his season to some degree, but a 108 wRC+ with 26 HR, and 30 stolen bases without being caught once isn’t amazing for the circumstances. He still posted -12 DRS in the field, got fewer opportunities to use his legs than ever with escalating flyball and strikeout rates, and was paid $30 million until he was 40 to be elite now. I think Trea Turner will be a little better next year, thanks to variance and home park adjustment (this ranking gives him credit for ~4.5 fWAR/650, as opposed to the 3.6 fWAR/650 he had this year), but the trajectory has only been downward since 2021.
Bobby Miller - 24 - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers (2023 Rank: UR)
People may be shocked by this placement, but after ranking 5th in Eno Sarris’ Stuff+ and 3rd in Pitching+ in his rookie season amongst all SP with more than 120 innings pitched, Miller has already shown plenty of ability and has even more in the tank. That’s not to say he hasn’t shown a lot already; he sits 99 on his fastball and sinker, which ranks 1st amongst starters, and a curve, slider, and changeup that are all able to get swings and misses at a rate above 10%. All of his pitches also have an ICR of 40% or less, which means they’re all average or better at limiting problematic contact, and every pitch allows fewer flyballs than groundballs. For someone who loves a deep arsenal, Miller has one of the deepest ones one could imagine.
Every pitch earns its place in the arsenal, and that’s beautiful.
There is another side of the coin here, though. Miller has 5 good pitches, but no pitch goes above and beyond to cement him as an elite pitcher yet. Most have the potential, though - the sinker already limits contact and elicits chases at a great rate, despite leaking over the plate a little too much for my liking. His slider and curve are magical when they are left below the zone, but are left in the heart of the zone just enough to be crushed on occasion, while only earning a few called strikes. The changeup has similar issues, but already mitigates contact beautifully. He reminds me a lot of Zac Gallen in this “arsenal by committee” approach, except I find that he’s better in almost every way, with youth on his side.
Logan Webb - 27 - SP - San Francisco Giants (2023 Rank: UR)
Logan Webb has gotten lots of love as of late, but I’m not as convinced as most about his success. I have no issues with his changeup from the heavens, inducing chases just under half the time, better than anyone who’s thrown it more than 200 times (Webb has over 1,300 times), and creates groundballs 73% of the time from immaculate location. It finds the lower third 82.3% of the time, and plays well against both sides of the plate. The success comes from an elite amount of break, which is 6 inches more than average according to BaseballSavant.
The rest of Webb’s pitches are less impressive. The sinker works off the changeup to a great amount of groundballs, but its location is far worse. It finds the heart of the plate nearly twice as much, according to Alex Chamberlain’s leaderboard, and relies on getting called strikes off the changeup tunnel. The slider is similar; it is decent based on its teammates in the mix, but it rarely finds the zone, and finds a chase even less. It gets hit hard for a 46.3% ICR and has a modest 28% whiff rate, given its relatively low use. Nobody’s fooled, and it feels like it’ll come back to haunt him at some point when facing RHB, considering he already has reverse splits.
Logan Webb’s success is primarily off those called strikes from the sinker, and to a certain extent, the slider, which puts him 2nd in called strike rate amongst SP with more than 100 IP (Webb threw 216, top in the majors). While the top of the swinging strike rate leaderboard is a who’s who of the league’s elite arms, the called strike leaderboard is a random assortment of starters. Rich Hill and Adam Wainwright are in the top 5, and Jake Irvin is 16th. Called strikes aren’t a great way to make a living, and makes it so Webb’s arsenal isn’t deep enough if his changeup isn’t on point for a start. While he ran a 3.6% BB rate last season, I think that number will jump up to 5-6% next year, and he will be punished much more on balls in play. He’s still a top-40 player, though, and deserves some extra credit for his huge volume of work and the great changeup.
Luis Robert - 26 - OF - Chicago White Sox (2023 Rank: UR)
Robert had a great year in 2023, but I’m hesitant to believe that the strong performance will stick around. He has trouble being disciplined outside the zone, swinging 12% more than the league-average hitter while making contact 13% less. He ran an elite barrel rate of 15.4%, but that came from no adjustment in exit velocity, instead, the improvement came from a 9% drop in groundball rate from a year ago, as well as a more sustainable 11% increase in pull rate. If his groundball rate regresses at all, it’ll cost him massively in terms of power, which is predicated only on great launch angles. By the way, if his exit velocities are so average, why is his strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly 6 to 1? He is fast, so he’ll maintain his elite CF defense, but this feels like a case of a player dominating for a season before regressing back to Earth.
Will Smith - 29 - C - Los Angeles Dodgers (2023 Rank: 42)
Will Smith is as boring as he is great. He had a slight change in approach, trading in power for contact, but it created results about as good as the two full seasons before. He continues to improve defensively, posting another above-average framing season while contributing +12 DRS, as much as his two prior seasons combined. Savant gives him a more modest rating of dead-average, but that’s still fine given his offensive capabilities. I’d expect another year of All-Star-level play from the Dodgers’ backstop.
Tarik Skubal - 27 - SP - Detroit Tigers (2023 Rank: UR)
I’ve already waxed on about Skubal this preseason, with added velocity pushing his repertoire up to new heights. His changeup has always been excellent, and his sinker and slider completely neutralize left-handed hitters. Only Strider posted a better K%-BB%, and no starter matched him in SIERA or DRA-, in as many batters faced as Skubal. Most of the skepticism lies on his fastball, which has some mediocre characteristics, and has not performed well historically, until last year. But Skubal only throws it 36% of the time, can throw it even less this season at a higher velocity, and can rely on a better cast of secondaries to conceal some of its flaws. Skubal has tweaked his slider and curve in the offseason, so in combination with an elite changeup, I don't think his fastball will be holding him back much. Remember: he was already shaping up in 2022 before getting hurt and getting Tommy John.
Brandon Nimmo - 31 - OF - New York Mets (2023 Rank: 39)
Another has fallen to the temptation of swinging big. Nimmo decided to begin to lay the hammer down, showcasing a brand-new level of pop to his bat at the cost of some atrophy in discipline. He’s down to just a 9.6 SEAGER from a 15 two years ago, first by a decline in walk rate, and then a sharp uptick in strikeout rate. He’s become much more selective on pitchers in the zone and whiffed more, but that contact has become much more productive (relatively, his whiff rate is still in the 68th percentile). His 9.5% barrel rate is a career-high, and his average exit velocity ranks in the top 15% of the league, while still chasing at a rate far better than the league average. It’s certainly a large-scale transformation for Nimmo, who is used to pedestrian, if not below-average power numbers. I’m not sure I buy it sticking around, much like his defensive improvements from a year ago, but I’ve been fooled before. His sprint speed continues to be in decline, losing another step last season to rank in the 64th percentile, making his future in CF uncertain with some capable center fielders coming through the Mets’ system. Nimmo is here for stability, despite some increased volatility last season.
Adolis Garcia - 31 - OF - Texas Rangers (2023 Rank: UR)
Garcia had a career year in 2023, posting improvements in numerous key areas that may make this ranking seem far too low in a year’s time. His power is well-documented, with elite exit velocities and solid flyball rates, but it historically came with some serious warts; a hefty dose of free-swinging, and struggles against soft stuff. This past season, he resolved those issues convincingly - he whiffed 7% less against breakers, 3% against changeups, and increased his SEAGER from a mediocre 15 to a great 19.5. At the cost of only swinging 2% less in the zone, he chased 8% less, solidifying a three-headed monster of disciplined bats at the top of the Ranger order. He made no concessions in power, either, matching his career-best average EV and setting a new one in 90th percentile EV. His defense in RF remains above average, but a loss of 1.5 ft/sec in sprint speed in only 2 seasons makes one question how long it can last. His baserunning impact has already dropped significantly as a result of this development. Either way, he remains on an upward trajectory offensively year-over-year and presents power that few can match.
George Kirby - 26 - SP - Seattle Mariners (2023 Rank: UR)
I didn’t know what to do with Kirby. He loves to pound the zone at a nearly unmatched rate, and that makes him beloved by metrics that value strike-throwing and a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. But he’s also extremely susceptible to hard contact from this approach, and a ballpark that suppresses damage as well as any undersells that particular issue. Akin to Webb, his success comes from lots of called strikes on the sinker, slider and curve. The heavy in-zone approach limits swings and misses as a result, but his great location still allows for a high groundball rate and.
His fastball, sinker, and slider are a great combination and should hold up, despite the fastball getting knocked around quite a bit, but I’m not buying the success of the curve. It got crushed when put into play and ran a crazy 66% groundball rate, which are two characteristics that typically don't align. He throws it much harder than most at 81 mph, which leaves it without a truly unique speed range. It runs just 3 mph slower than the splitter and 5 from the slider. Lastly is that aforementioned splitter, which is unique in being the only pitch he regularly locates outside the zone. It’s earned its 10% usage against left-handed hitters with a 36.4% whiff rate, but is still prone to being left a little too high up in the zone. It’s a fresh offering, so I can cut him some slack for that.
Your opinion on Kirby largely hinges on your thoughts about how important location is to getting results - his pitches aren’t overpowering, but they’re good enough to perform when the opponent knows generally where it’s going. He’s built perfectly for Seattle, but would he perform nearly as well in a park like Cincinatti? I don't think so, which is why I’m a little lower on him than some.
Jose Altuve - 33 - 2B - Houston Astros (2023 Rank: 25)
A broken wrist that delayed Altuve’s start to the season by several months may explain my concerns away, but his great 90-game performance seems to have obscured some looming concerns with the Astros’ leadoff man. First, his groundball rate soared to 48.2% according to FanGraphs, which would be 20th highest amongst qualified hitters, higher than noted groundball merchants Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Julio Rodriguez. Altuve actually ran groundball rates just as high, if not higher, in some of his best years, before the pandemic. But he’s lost some of the spring in his step since then - his sprint speed was a full ft/sec lower than his prior worst in 2023, which has little to do with a bad wrist.
Then there’s his regression against breaking balls to similar career-worst levels. He struggled against offspeed more than he ever has, and continues to be below-average on breaking balls while whiffing 5% more against them than in 2022. Add in a more passive approach than ever, amid a continuing decline in that department, and Altuve shows clear signs of old age. Altuve isn’t done yet - it’d be foolish to claim he’ll be unproductive with the lucrative Crawford Boxes, both financially for the Astros and offensively for him. But I think Altuve’s best years are likely behind him, which means only All-Star-level play. Poor guy.
Dansby Swanson - 30 - SS - Chicago Cubs (2023 Rank: UR)
Many people believed the 7 year/$177 million contract Swanson signed with the Cubs would be an overpay, but it’s actually aged better than any of the key several SS contracts signed in the past several years outside of Semien (if you consider him one) and Seager. Maybe your name just needs to start with the letter S to work out. Swanson has been outstanding in the field for the last two seasons, posting +31 FRV and +27 DRS, which are 1st and 8th respectively amongst all fielders in that timeframe. This comes at the premium position of SS, which has transitioned towards offensive-minded players over the past several years, making this level of success even more valuable.
Everyone understood the glove would stick, but what about the bat? Well, 2023 proved that Swanson had the makings of an above-average hitter to him, with room to grow. He became far more patient, chasing at a career-low 23.6% rate and making more contact on pitches outside of the zone than he has in years. This benefitted him greatly against breaking balls, where he created much better quality of contact, and changeups, leading to fewer whiffs. While his 104 wRC+ is right in line with his career average, this improvement in discipline should lead to a better season for a Cubs offense that saw virtually no changes in the offseason.
Luis Castillo - 31 - SP - Seattle Mariners (2023 Rank: UR)
Luis has plenty of potential, but at 31, time is running out to fully realize it. It all starts with his elite fastball, which has elite swing-and-miss from an extremely flat profile. The +.62° VAA AA (vertical approach angle above average) is comparable to guys like Nola and Strider, and Castillo utilizes it efficiently at the top of the zone. The 18.5% swinging strike rate is downright crazy given it’s only 96 mph (Strider only sees 15.6% for those wondering), and a 33% whiff rate. The propensity to locate it up in the zone makes 85% of batted balls go toward the heavens, either categorized as flyballs or popups by PitcherList. Seattle’s friendly confines help with this, turning many home runs into simple flyouts.
He also has a gyro slider and changeup, which both play off the fastball well. The slider can steal strikes in the zone and whiffs outside of it, and the changeup gets whiffs on great command in the zone. They both deserve better than the results they got, but they’re not the problem. That label goes to the sinker, which saw 27% usage against RHB, his second-highest in 2023, despite not doing nearly enough to deserve that type of spotlight. It generates plenty of groundballs, sure, but it’s not jamming people into rollovers the way one would want. It even got lucky, to an extent, underplaying its xWOBA and xBABIP by 70 points each, while still being his worst offering. It shouldn’t be canned altogether, but his fastball and slider are too effective to let the sinker get more than, say, 10-15% usage. I would even be inclined to try more same-sided changeups to avoid them. If the sinkers can’t work now with such a dominant fastball/slider, is it even worth pursuing improvement on? Virtually all of his best starts of the year came with much lower sinker usage than average, and I think that’s for good reason.
Yandy Diaz - 32 - 1B - Tampa Bay Rays (2023 Rank: UR)
After serious consideration last year (he may have been player #51), Yandy finally makes the list this year. His offensive contribution has been consistently good for the past five years from great discipline, but he lacked the power and flyball frequency to progress to the upper echelon. He improved his flyball rate in 2022 and pushed his 90th% EV into the top 15, but it seemed like not quite enough to earn his place on the list. In retrospect, including Buxton over him was a little crazy. Diaz vanquished all my doubts and more in 2023, with a top 10 90th% EV and a near 10% barrel rate from increased aggression. His whiff rate was raised by 4%, at no cost of chase rate or SEAGER, allowing him to double his home run count from 9 to 22 in one season. There was some regression, though, in groundball rate, dropping him back down to 52%. I don't see another .900 OPS season in his future, but he’ll almost certainly remain “good enough.” His defense and baserunning are nothing to write home about, but they’re surprisingly average so long as he’s manning 1st, and not 3rd.
Aaron Nola - 30 - SP - Philadelphia Phillies (2023 Rank: 29)
He may continue to follow the pendulum of performance - first elite, then shambolic - but I’m not giving up hope quite yet. Citizens Bank Park can be a cruel mistress, and it seems to issue its wrath on Nola more than just about anyone else. His 6.2% HR/FB rate from a 4th-place 2022 Cy Young finish ballooned to 12.2% a year later, despite burying his curve and fastball low in the zone as much as ever and putting the sinker and changeup down there far more. We have an inverse Cole situation here. Instead of fewer home runs on pitches up, it’s more on pitches down! Lefties got him the hardest, as one may expect, primarily on the curve. He revved its usage up to 34%, after being just 25% a year ago, and located it to a strong 5.40 PLV, and 3% mistake rate, but it still coughed up home runs on 33% of flyballs vs. LHB and 27% overall, according to PitcherList. His 4-seam, which he turned to less, changeup, and sinker all had similar issues, despite only small drops in performance. An important thing to note about these drops is Nola’s struggles with the pitch clock. Of 386 qualified pitchers, he was 381st in pitch tempo and 2nd-slowest amongst starters.
Nobody is going to move the fences back for Nola in Philly, but the 66.4% LOB rate on reasonable ICR and groundball rates reeks of his miserable 2021 season. Nola was objectively worse at controlling the true outcomes last year, but not to the point that all hope is lost. His rate of pitches down in the zone is around 55%, 6% better than last year. I don't think his command is on the ropes quite yet.
Nola’s level of play in 2023 was a step back, but wasn’t too distant from something we had seen before.
Yoshi Yamamoto - 25 - SP - Los Angeles Dodgers (2023 Rank: UR)
It’s hard to rate Yamamoto, going off only pitch metrics and one shambolic start in Seoul. I’m not reading into that performance at all, given the strange circumstances. I don't think Yamamoto will be an overpowering pitcher, although his Ks likely will go up in a more power-oriented MLB, but he’s not going to be mediocre either. He has fantastic command, and his splitter and curve are both elite pitches for swing and miss. His fastball has been compared to Gausman’s, which is no compliment, but indicates it’ll still be okay. Gausman gets by just fine on a shallower mix than Yamamoto, after all. He also has a cutter that is average at best and will be used often low and away to LHB and down and into RHB.
My main question is: how is he going to get RHB out? His fastball and cutter are both mediocre, and his splitter is going to enjoy facing LHB more than RHB. I see a Joe Ryan-esque problem here: pounding the zone with fastballs and splitters more than you’d like vs. RHB, while praying the sweeper for Ryan/curve for Yamamoto can do the rest. It’s not the most inspiring approach, but shows a clear road of progression for the future.
Conclusion
That’s my list for the year! I hope you find my insights interesting. It’s always fun to make them, but maybe not so much fun to write it all up. One of the benefits of being so slow with making and writing up the list is that I can compile the consensus rankings for all the top 50 lists published so far.
The community’s consensus rankings from the 11 top 50/100 lists I could find.
Each ranking is the average, with the highest and lowest ranking for each player removed. Any player not included on a given list got a score of 70 for that list. For example, Kirby had 5 rankings across the 11 lists, so on the other 6 he got a 70, rather than a specific ranking like the 44 he got from me. There were 28 players on all 11 lists, and 81 unique players total. For those curious, of the 13 players included on only one list, I had 4 (Bobby Miller, Tarik Skubal, Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow).
No more intel, because I need to save some for the recap! The full list of lists (what a strange phrase) included for this consensus ranking is below. More articles coming soon.
Sources
PitcherList
FanGraphs
SwingGraphs
Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard
Robert Orr’s App (TheRealestmuto?)
BaseballReference
BaseballProspectus
Lists used
Mine, obviously