My Top 50 MLB Players for 2025, Part 1 (1-25)

My third annual list begins. Can I improve on my mediocre performance from last year?

Introduction

Welcome to my third annual Top 50 player list! As always, it’s split into two parts and is predicated on expected prorated performance (i.e., injuries are not considered, except in the most extreme circumstances). While this may be controversial, a player’s “injury proneness” can flip on a dime, and unlike their actual results, I have no access to, or the ability to interpret their medical records. My metrics of choice are fWAR for position players and rWAR for pitchers, because I believe they are the best representations of a player’s production regardless of skill set throughout a given year.

A new addition to this year’s list is the prior year’s ranking in both the prorated (designated “P”) and total (“T”) sections. They will be next to the “previous rank,” which indicates where I put the player in question on my list before 2024. If a player’s prorated rank does not qualify (DNQ), that means they didn’t accumulate 377 PA or 122 IP last season, the requirement to be eligible for that section in my annual recap article. Otherwise, results could be easily skewed by small samples. There is no such restriction on total WAR performance, which is self-explanatory. The results you see are what you get.

A couple more things: when I mention xWOBA, unless otherwise stated, it will be the pull-adjusted version via PitcherList, not BaseballSavant. In certain cases, there is a very large discrepancy, so don't be confused. Also, I’ve made a graphic for easier perusing if you want to skip to a ranking you find particularly harsh or interesting. Half of it is empty because it’s only the top 25 so far, of course. I hope you find the time to read through the whole thing regardless! 8,621 words and all.

My rankings if you want to skip somewhere specific. Big thanks to @TJStats for providing the foundation of the code from his pitching summary article.

1. Shohei Ohtani - 30 - Los Angeles Dodgers - DH/SP (Previous Rank: 7, P: 3, T: 3)

After a brief demotion in 2024 because of his DH-only status, the King of Baseball returns to his throne. Although Witt or Judge could overthrow Shohei at their best, an average two-way season for Sho can outperform a great season from either of them. One can question his ability to return to his great pitching form following surgery, but he has relied less and less on his four-seam over time, making a potential velocity drop manageable. The key concern is his command, which has struggled to even be average in any year of his career. In particular, it’s a recurring issue with his splitter, which regressed as a direct consequence in 2023. His volatility was clearly evident; the strike and in-zone rate plummeted to unsustainable levels with its weak chase rate, and its usage plunged to fringe territory below 10%. Interestingly, the shape of the pitch continues to shift every year, generally by imparting more vertical (sometimes denoted as IVB) and horizontal break on it, which could only compound the problem.

On the more promising side, a pitch to look out for is his sinker. He used it 10% of the time against RHB after a successful trial run in 2022, and it elicited ideal contact (also called ICR) just 12% of the time, where 38% or so is average. Its groundball frequency was a Holmes-esque 81%, and offers him a suitable replacement for his troublesome cutter (47% ICR). It’s also topical, in view of the Dodgers adding one to Glasnow’s arsenal last season with satisfactory returns. His sweeper should remain ironclad as his top weapon, and the fastball is effective if one can look past its high hard-hit rate with a tendency to stay low in the zone. If the Boys in Blue can squeeze more out of his splitter and sinker to reduce the dependency on his 4-seam, he can reach another level of performance on the mound.

Offensively, there’s no hole in his game, and he seems to only continue to get better. He demonstrates immense power with 2nd-place finishes in barrel rate and average exit velocity (EV), and a 36% groundball rate (GB%) is absolutely incredible for how low his strikeout rate (K%) is, 22%. The latter is far from the old 30% mark he posted early on in his career, and it surprisingly hasn’t cost him anywhere else in his game, as best I can tell. Rather, he’s more aggressive early in counts, and people are willing to give him a pitch to work with instead of putting him on for the other heavy hitters lower in the order. Also, did I mention his 60 stolen base potential on elite efficiency, which allowed him to finish 2nd in baserunning value (BsR) across the entire league? While the move to the Dodgers helped his championship aspirations immensely, it may have helped his chance of individual accolades on both sides of the ball just as much.

2. Bobby Witt Jr. - 24 - Kansas City Royals - SS (Previous Rank: 13, P: 2, T: 2)

The debate between Witt and Judge at #2 was perhaps the toughest in the whole list, with each candidate utilizing completely different skill sets to get to the same elite echelon of performance. Aaron Judge had an absolutely absurd season, which will be covered in a moment, but I believe Witt had a more complete season, and I tend to favor more complete skill sets that allow for value on all sides of the ball. Witt finished 4th in wRC+, 14th in Fielding Run Value (FRV), and 15th in BsR, with the latter mark only being so low because of some extra trepidation on the bases. When one can argue a player’s biggest weakness is his baserunning while simultaneously being the FASTEST player in the sport according to Statcast sprint speed, the player you’re discussing is completely absurd. The gap between him and 2nd place is as large as the gap between 2nd and 15th (0.4 feet/sec), because of course it is.

As you may recall, my reasoning for not putting him inside the top 10 last year was his very low Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), at just -6. I’ve been a little cute above by including his FRV rather than his DRS, despite DRS being slightly more accurate for infielders than FRV. Although Witt’s 6 DRS is 12 runs better than last year’s mark, it’s still only half of his FRV. Either way, Witt certainly can't be considered a slouch at short.

Offensively, he’s a complete package. He managed to improve in almost every offensive metric, most notably, he’s hitting the ball 2 mph harder with a barrel rate 3% higher, while also possessing a K rate 2.5% lower than a year ago. His only real blemish with the bat is his mediocre record of pulling the ball (41st percentile in pulled flyball rate), limiting his (pull-adjusted) xWOBA to .402, but it’s no dealbreaker. I will say, though, that having that skill would probably be enough to put him #1. If he doesn't post 8 wins/650 PA this season, I'd be surprised.

3. Aaron Judge - 32 - New York Yankees - OF (Previous Rank: 1, P:1, T:1)

In any year between 2005 and 2021, Aaron Judge would be #1 by a wide margin, with the exception of maybe 2012-13 Trout, when he was at the pinnacle of his defensive and baserunning powers while also wielding a top-5 bat. Unfortunately, he is going up against a two-way player and a shortstop who's as close to early-career Mike Trout as one can get, so he finds himself 3rd instead. Offensively, there’s not much to say. His barrel rate was once again above 26% (2nd: 21.5%, Ohtani), average EV at 96 mph (2nd: Ohtani), and an xWOBA of .429 (only Soto, at .439, clears him). He crushes all types of pitches, doesn’t chase, and is in the 100th percentile in swing decisions (SEAGER) and 90th percentile EV. How in the world is he only #3?

The questions come defensively and on the bases. He has frequently manned center field the past three seasons, and while he was serviceable there in 2022 and 2023, the wear and tear is starting to show. He posted -3 FRV last season there, and he will only continue losing sprint speed as the years go on. The addition of Cody Bellinger will shift him back to RF, where he may be able to get a little more value in cruise control mode, but he surely won’t be rewinding the clock to the days before his toe injury. Judge's baserunning has never been stellar, and he has been risk-averse when choosing to swipe bags and take the extra base since signing his deal. So long as Judge continues to hit, nobody will mind these flaws. But if he starts struggling to catch the high heater, there won’t be much to fall back on to contribute as the guys above him.

4. Gunnar Henderson - 23 - Baltimore Orioles - SS (Previous Rank: 27, P: 8, T: 5)

ATC projects the young Oriole star as the third-best position player in 2025, and I believe it. He has managed to maintain great results despite some serious flaws: his groundball rate is a poor 47%, and his pulled flyball rate is far below league average, which caps his ability to exploit the short wall in right and once cost him dearly with the now-defunct Mount Walltimore in left. His great last year and a half have instead derived from great bat speed and plate discipline, while also showcasing solid baserunning (4 BsR) and defense (5 DRS) at perhaps the most important position on the field.

The plate discipline angle has been the most critical for Gunnar - he improved his SEAGER from the 36th percentile to the 89th, and was reflected across all pitch types. Given that it came at no concession of contact quality, he’s one step closer to being a complete offensive juggernaut. His comparatively weak second half (only a 5.2 fWAR/650 PA) was primarily from beating the ball into the ground, and it’ll be an ongoing battle that may be reminiscent of Julio Rodriguez’s. However, Julio never managed to hit the ball with the authority Gunnar has in this prolonged time frame, which can make up for almost any swing path deficiency (see: Soto, Juan). I’m betting on some improvement in those weak areas to take him into consistent 7+ win territory.

5. Juan Soto - 26 - New York Mets - OF (Previous Rank: 8, P: 6, T: 4)

There have always been two issues for Juan Soto, which will sound familiar to the man directly above him. First, his groundball rate, which created copious amounts of double plays with his well below-average sprint speed. This year, he dropped it by 7%, landing at the second-lowest mark of his career. Secondly, he raised his pull frequency from a mediocre 35% to a great 42%, a tremendous development for the courteous right-field line at the Stadium. Combined with a slightly more aggressive approach, Juan Soto was taking full advantage of the opportunity to hit in front of Aaron Judge. In 2024, he walked more than he struck out with a 20% barrel rate (4th), 109.9 mph 90th percentile EV (6th), and a .439 xWOBA (1st). Statcast’s projected stats, without considering pull rate, reckons his 2024 slashline should have been .323/.452/.673, which would be absolutely mental for any player, even one with the defensive questions of Soto. While I question whether the new groundball rate will stick with his VBA being almost identical, I think he might be able to preserve his more pull-happy tendencies.

That defense, unfortunately, caps his placement on the list. Although some pondered whether he had also made strides in the outfield early in the year, a myriad of mistakes have reassured people of what they already knew: Juan Soto is not a Gold Glove candidate, no matter what the lamestream media insists. His fielding still improved somewhat this year, finishing at -1 FRV, but that best-case scenario simply doesn’t come close to the defensive performances of Henderson or Judge, not to mention Witt. Soto’s speed is similarly graded as average in the best-case scenario; this year, he’s been at his worst when looking to take the extra base and is no threat to steal bases. It’s hard to say whether he will regain some proactivity with a new contract locked in, or if this is the new normal.

I’ve said for the last two years that Soto would get 15 years, $600 million. Only three of 28 insiders expected a contract that large or greater seven months ago, but it turns out even I heavily undercut things. My final prediction from the start of the offseason was 15 years, $750 million. Close enough. Hopefully, I can say the same about this placement in October.

6. Jose Ramirez - 32 - Cleveland Guardians - 3B (Previous Rank: 5, P: 14, T: 8)

I was extremely high on the top third baseman of this list a year ago, and while he did deliver a vintage performance, there were some concerning signs. He lost some of his trademark plate discipline, continuing a four-year-long downslide in SEAGER and a five-year-long uptick in chases to the 41st and 24th percentiles, respectively. Albeit those declines hadn’t presented themselves in his strikeout or walk rates in the past, they certainly did this year. His walk rate (BB%) was at its lowest in 8 seasons after dropping 3% from 2023, and his strikeout rate increased by 1.5% at the same time. The added aggression got him some extra contact, but his power remained in a similar lull with a 90th percentile EV that was worse than any year since 2020. The one benefit he got was more pulled flyballs, which he used to great effect by tying his career-high in home runs, 39. I don't see this level of power sticking around, though, and what does Ramirez without 30 homer upside look like? It may come sooner than you think.

The other surprising element was his baserunning, where he contributed more value than any other time in his career on the most stolen base attempts. His sprint speed has stabilized itself around the top quartile his whole career, but that may itself begin to decline entering his age-32 season. Going with it would conceivably be his defense, which is another healthy contributor to his well-rounded game.

I won't want to dramatize Ramirez’s decline after a season where he put up a .373 xWOBA, 6 baserunning runs above average, and 6 DRS. However, there are clear flaws opening up in his game that weren’t present during his prime. His position at #6 indicates the instability outside the top 5, with almost every player being either a) very young and volatile to project or b) an established player who has some key flaw in their game. Ramirez’s track record of success with a triple threat to produce (hitting, fielding, baserunning) gives him a leg up on the other contenders.

7. Mookie Betts - 32 - Los Angeles Dodgers - OF/SS/2B (Previous Rank: 3, P: 21, T: 34)

I called Betts the most complete offensive player in the majors on last year’s list by virtue of his outstanding foundation of skills. Though I would say he managed to retain that title, pacing for more than 6 fWAR/650 PA with a 150 wRC+ and more walks than strikeouts, some questions have begun to arise. His regression has been slow and clear so far: his sprint speed continues to fall, his pull rate plummeted to an uncharacteristically low 34%, a serious contributor to his power, and he showed a greater propensity to chase after already taking a more passive in-zone approach two years prior. The lowest pull rate of his career is the largest cause for concern, but I have the belief that it’ll return in due time. Otherwise, Betts will be falling down the list very quickly.

Defensively, his move to shortstop appears to be justified, grading out at 4 DRS. I originally expected him back in the outfield full-time, but the signing of Conforto and the exportation of Gavin Lux secured a continued role in the infield for the time being. He's clearly weaker up the middle, but it's a harder position to fill, and he's not a Platinum Glove-level defender in right anymore.

Although it’d be unfair to say that Betts is aging out of the league, the clear step back in all three parts of the game indicates that his best years may already be behind him. Despite more contact than ever, the corresponding drop in results just doesn't justify consideration of a top-4 placing. If you wanted to be harsh about Betts’ aging curve, with a decline in his dynamic playmaking already in full swing, I could see him outside the top 10.

8. Kyle Tucker - 28 - Chicago Cubs - OF (Previous Rank: 15, P: DNQ, T: 39)

Tucker turned a new leaf last season, improving in almost every facet of the game to become a total offensive behemoth. However, I question how much of the progression was a product of his half-season sample size, given how drastic the improvements truly are. The most impactful change of them all came in his groundball rate: a whopping 10.5% decrease to the second-best mark in the league, 28%, according to FanGraphs. Only Betts was better, the gold standard. If it were to stick, a 45 HR/650 PA pace would be more than justifiable, but one has to question whether such a leap with no concessions in contact frequency is remotely reasonable to assume. Think Ronald Acuna’s miraculous 11% drop in K rate in 2023, for example.

His other area of improvement was his plate discipline, and that is much more likely to stick around. His SEAGER jumped from the 86th percentile to the 99th, while imitating former teammate Alex Bregman by walking more than he struck out for the first time. Most impressive was his chase rate, a minuscule 21%, second-best of all players with at least 300 PA, and better than other patient players like Judge and Soto. While I doubt he’s become Juan Soto with speed, made obvious by my ranking of him here, an improvement to the top decile in swing decisions would not be shocking.

On the defensive side of the ball, he was mediocre, where he’s likely to settle in the next few years, and his sprint speed was just 26 feet per second, scary close to lumbering first basemen. Regardless, he is slated to become at least a $400 million player next year with a season half as good as the last one, and he will be fully deserving of it. I suspect the Dodgers are positioning for him after the expiration of Conforto’s one-year deal, but almost every team that can afford the $40 million+ salary will be interested.

9. Paul Skenes - 22 - Pittsburgh Pirates - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 4, T: 15)

Paul Skenes may have exceeded expectations by performing at such a high level immediately upon promotion, but he also subverted them in how he did it. Although his 32% K rate was elite, I find his contact mitigation to be his greatest asset and paired with a deep and evolving arsenal, Skenes is about the safest bet you can get for a pitcher in modern times.

First, the fastball. There was a lot of discourse about how good his fastball was, considering the juxtaposition of a lackluster movement profile that casually sits at triple digits. So far, it’s been on the worse side of things; it gets hammered for a 44% ICR on just a 12% swinging strike rate, with extra punishment coming from LHB. He uses it more than 40% of the time against the weak-side platoon matchup while conceding ideal contact nearly half the time, and despite being hyper-aggressive with it in the zone in general, it only commands an above-average swing-and-miss percentage. With the amount of other weapons he has, I imagine he will turn to it less going forward.

His infamous splinker sees 25+% usage against hitters on both sides of the plate and has the holy trinity of pitch results. It elicits chases and whiffs at an incredible 44% and 30% clip, respectively, while conceding hard contact on less than 27% of balls in play. If that wasn’t good enough, the command is also immaculate, with a focus down in the zone, eliciting groundballs 72% of the time. Its success is in large part from its great tunneling with his other pitches, something that is universal in his arsenal but is especially prevalent here, and the absurd drop he can get out of it - more than 5 inches than expected based on his arm angle! All these factors make it the obvious candidate to be ramped up next season if he wants to decrease his 4-seam dependence.

The sinker drops 5 more inches than one would expect, an absurd amount.

His curve was his other key piece last year, thrown at a blistering 83 mph that still finds time to sweep over 7 inches. It is able to facilitate a 37% CSW and 35% ICR on 16% usage against LHB and 6% against RHB, which makes it a prime candidate to get a role upgrade. The only concern would be his command, which can occasionally be rocky with a swing rate that is not as far below league average as you may think.

His slider also limits contact effectively with a shockingly low 26% ICR from above-average rise that elicits lots of weak flyballs. It deceives fewer hitters than it should without a true bridge pitch for his very wide arsenal, but with such strong hard contact limitation on 24% usage, it’s hard to argue against it. With a new 85 mph sweeper in the last four starts of the year finding success, Skenes has the opportunity to explore a harder slider with less horizontal break to not step on the sweeper’s toes in run and velocity, and to tunnel even more effectively with his arm-side stuff.

He also messed with a changeup late in the year that has created a whopping 27% swinging strike rate, 54% whiff rate, and 25% ICR on 8% usage. He’s scarcely made a mistake locating it, and it's a clear piece for him to work on incorporating more into his arsenal for left-handed hitters. Given the 4-seam’s issues largely stem from LHB, it’s the most obvious pitch to make gains at the heater’s expense.

The amount a pitch gains in expected run value, courtesy of Maxwell Resnick’s app. ‘ST’ denotes the sweeper.

10. Tarik Skubal - 28 - Detroit Tigers - SP (Previous Rank: 41, P: 17, T: 10)

Skubal showed out and showed up beyond my wildest expectations in 2024. I was the only man to include him on a top 50 list last season of those I tracked, proving I may still have some semblance of evaluating pitching talent after the Bobby Miller incident. My reasoning was simple - I believed in the four-seam and changeup growth he displayed in his abridged 2023, in part because it was a symbiotic relationship, and his great all-around 5-pitch mix that showed no clear weakness. Some called his success a byproduct of his weak schedule, which sounds like something Billy Ripken would say to fill time on MLB Network. Instead, I deemed that stretch “him doing what he was supposed to.”

My one concern was whether his velocity would stick around, but after gaining 1-2 mph across the board this year, it’s safe to say that’s been dispelled. His slider, in particular, leveled up, going from a 13.5% called strike rate to 20% against RHP with a unique backdooring approach. The usage against LHP dropped massively concurrently, instead turning to sinkers 55% of the time, creating an ICR of 18% and a ground ball rate of 65%. His changeup continues to return swing-and-miss which is unbelievable, and his fastball, once considered a weakness in his arsenal, now returns elite results thanks to the other parts of his mix and its subsequently diminished role. I’m not sure how long he can sustain this level of flamethrowing, but I am confident in saying that Skubal is currently one of the two best pitchers in baseball.

11. Yordan Alvarez - 27 - Houston Astros - DH (Previous Rank: 9, P: 25, T: 21)

Yordan is the pinnacle of consistency in both rank and performance, despite 2024 bringing the second straight year of declining power for him. He opted to be more swing-happy this year with a corresponding focus on contact, which allowed him to carry over similar overall results from past years with less reliance on the home run. His strikeout rate was brought down to a staggering 15%, nearly 10% lower than what it was just 3 years ago in 2021, and is the ideal scenario when making a contact for power exchange. I’m not sure if I agree with the approach shift long-term regardless, considering it may just lead to more double plays for the same level of production in the best case, and may cost him contact quality in the worst. As much as we can’t pin the entirety of his 25-point xWOBA loss on it, it certainly isn’t innocent, either. Either way, it’s not something to seriously worry about yet, given he just clocked in another 5.5 fWAR/650 PA season. Just stop playing him in the outfield with his -5 FRV in less than 50 games worth of innings. Those knees are hanging on by a thread.

12. Jackson Merrill - 21 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 18, T: 21)

No, your eyes don't deceive you, and no, this is not a typo. I have Jackson Merrill as the 12th-best player in the majors next year, and I’m not sure it’s even that hot of a take. Of the three premier rookies who debuted - Merrill, Langford, and Chourio - Merrill was clearly the best throughout the whole year, and he is far too developed for his age to put him any lower. To illustrate that, here’s a comparison:

The players look pretty similar, right? Player A is better on the bases, while Player B is better defensively. They both play a premium position as well. Player B is Jackson Merrill in 2024. Player A? Bobby Witt in 2023, two years Merrill's senior and one more experienced. Given Witt was a consensus top-20 player entering 2024, and I personally placed him 13th, Merrill is right at home in this ranking.

Offensively, Merrill has an elite line-drive approach. His 36° vertical bat angle (VBA) swing path enables great results on his high contact rates, a trait reminiscent of the man we just compared him to. These factors prevent his swing-happy approach from being detrimental, as indicated by his 63rd percentile SEAGER. In the second half, he ranked top-10 in fWAR, shoulder-to-shoulder with guys like Juan Soto and Jose Ramirez, despite far fewer opportunities, and was great in all phases of the game. His bat especially improved, pushing his hard-hit rate to well above average and his sweet spot rates to over 40%, often with stretches near 45%. Over a full season, he would likely lead the league in the latter, emphasizing the veteran feel for the barrel he already possesses in less than 600 MLB PAs.

Defensively, he was a stalwart. Unlike fellow freshmen Langford and Chourio, he manned center field as a converted shortstop and showed no signs of growing pains. His 10 FRV was elite amongst 2024 players at the position, thanks to great range and an arm that placed in the 90th percentile. On the bases, he wasn’t as aggressive as he possibly could have been, stealing just 16 bases on 84% success. In the unlikely event Luis Arraez is traded, he will get the opportunity to do grave damage with his legs from the lead-off spot. Otherwise, he will bat 3rd or 4th, and barring a disastrous falloff, Merrill will be the most valuable player for the Padres next year and many to follow.

13. Elly de la Cruz - 23 - Cincinnati Reds - SS (Previous Rank: UR, P: 15, T: 9)

Some may view this as an aggressive ranking, but Elly ranked 8th in fWAR/650 PA in 2024 amongst qualified hitters, a great achievement. EDLC possesses the golden combination of a high floor, from his great SS defense and baserunning with a capable stick, and an absurdly high ceiling, thanks to an offensive profile that isn’t close to being filled out.

Look no further than last season, where at age 22, he was able to cut his K% by 2.5 points, improve his BB% by 2 points, his SEAGER by 2.5 points, and his Barrel% by 3 points. His GB% was down 8, and in Cincinnati, that has a larger impact than almost anywhere else. He continues to struggle to hit from the right side, but a 200-point improvement in OPS is a welcome sight. From the left side, he already swings it like a star with a .876 OPS. His xWOBA is a paltry .307, but that doesn’t consider his outlier sprint speed, which gives him some boost on the groundballs that he often puts into play. Nonetheless, he needs to seriously correct his approach against breaking balls, the one major sticking point for him before he ascends to the next level. He runs whiff rates over 40% against them, simultaneously not punishing them when he does square it up. That can only mean one thing - an even higher share of them will likely await him in the future.

Elly’s growth may be more multiplicative than any other player. As he takes more walks and puts more balls in play, he will give himself more opportunities to swipe bags, something he took the chance to do in over half the opportunities allotted to him. A 100 stolen-base season is certainly not out of the question, and neither is 40 home runs, a skill set that is comparable to few other than former Red Eric Davis. How many players can be so flawed, and yet so close to being so great? It is quite possible that this ranking seems silly in June in either direction, which is why doing this is so fun.

14. Francisco Lindor - 31 - New York Mets - SS (Previous Rank: 17, P: 7, T: 6)

I suspect people will have Lindor much higher, but I don't see a massive adjustment to make him go up. He has a magnificent floor, thanks to great shortstop defense (12 FRV) and 30 stolen base upside, but I question whether he can return elite offensive campaigns consistently. He’s gone the way of Brandon Nimmo, trading some contact and discipline for power, but it’s far too subtle of a change to believe this amount of improvement in results will stick. His xWOBA did reach its highest point since tracking began on both PitcherList and Savant thanks to his new aggressive mindset, yet he will turn 31 next season. I can’t buy a repeat of his best season by fWAR/650 at 31. 6 fWAR would be a fine year for him, I think.

15. Ronald Acuna Jr. - 27 - Atlanta Braves - OF (Previous Rank: 2, P: DNQ, T: 384)

Ronald’s season was cut short by a torn ACL, but the third of the season he did manage to play reveals that some of his magical 2023 may have been a mirage. He was able to match his great swing decisions of the prior campaign, but lacked the contact, or the quality, to take advantage of it. His K rate reverted straight back to career norms at 24%, and his usually great power completely evaporated from his bat, both in his 90th percentile EV and barrel rate. He continues to be a negative on the defensive end with his troublesome knee, and his sprint speed has gone from elite to just above average in three years, despite preserving gaudy stolen base totals. His groundball rate was higher than ever, at 52%, and the hard stuff, which he has made his primary target in his best seasons, gave him fits. There’s a lot to dislike for Acuna, as he regressed from clear MVP to mediocre outfielder in just one offseason.

I suspect Ronnie was playing through something, as I find it hard to believe that everything could cave in on him at once. I have concerns about returning to his 2023 ceiling, where he mashed balls at unbelievable contact rates, but the typical floor and ceiling of his career should be sound for now. The only season recently comparable to this one, 2022, still managed to precede his greatest season, after all. I choose to hedge my bets in the top 15.

16. Jackson Chourio - 21 - Milwaukee Brewers - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 49, T: 54)

Jackson Chourio is the Truth. Sorry, Paul Pierce! He has seen a shockingly steady incline in his rolling 200 PA (non pull-adjusted) xWOBA over the course of the season, starting in the doldrums of sub-.280 values to now surpassing .400. Over that time, his walk rate has stayed stable, while his K% has declined at a similar gradient from over 25% to a great 15%. He’s hitting the ball 3 mph harder than he did at the start of the year, and with swiftly declining groundball frequencies, Chourio looks like the full package offensively.

His 97th percentile sprint speed gives him 40 SB potential, and he already plays solid defense in the corner, with the possibility to be serviceable in center in an emergency. Like Witt last year, I feel like I may be too conservative, despite this likely being the high watermark for his placing amongst industry Top 50/100 lists. He’s sometimes referred to as a “baby Acuna,” and the skill set he’s showcased thus far may make that comparison prophetic.

Chourio’s quality of contact progressed continuously for five months before dropping off at the end.

17. Corey Seager - 30 - Texas Rangers - SS (Previous Rank: 12, P: 24, T: 30)

I was one of the lowest on Seager last year, believing that he simply hit the jackpot on a 95th or 99th percentile outcome, and so I’m not as surprised as some at his regression in results. However, his great approach remains intact, so I am holding firm. Seager’s success is predicated on elite hitting from one-of-one strike zone control, while hitting the ball in the air with authority on high contact rates. Of these traits, Seager either stood pat or improved in all of them in 2024, despite far less eye-watering results.

We can start with SEAGER, the plate discipline stat that bears his name, where he put up another great performance in the 94th percentile. His barrel rate, pull rate, and groundball rate remained level, while increasing his pulled flyball rate from the bottom 25% of the league to the top 30%. His quality of contact was top-10 yet again amongst players with as many PAs, in addition to remaining a capable shortstop. Amidst talks of being moved to either corner infield spot, he quietly put up 5 DRS in 120 games there, but I, like many others, question whether he can remain there by the next year or two. His sprint speed is already in the bottom 10% of the league, and his arm is in the bottom 25. But even as a 1B or DH, he’d be a slightly worse version of Yordan Alvarez, which is no insult.

18. Julio Rodriguez - 24 - Seattle Mariners - OF (Previous Rank: 11, P: 61, T: 58)

Some may expect Julio to be ranked lower, but after a third season that he will hope to soon forget, there’s less to be concerned about than one may expect. His entire regression is from an inability to punish breaking balls, with a 4 mph drop in exit velocity against them. Interestingly, he concurrently improved against fastballs, providing a .400 xWOBA and the majority of his power against them.

When I said that the problems were quarantined to that specific part of his game, I was serious. They don't pertain to his swing decisions, with a career-best 95th percentile SEAGER and normal K and BB rates for his career, nor his groundball rates, which also were at a career-best. His VBA increased by a degree to 33॰, giving him more power potential at Safeco, where balls go to die. His defense remains great in center field, and his baserunning still provides top-10 upside. One also has to remember he’s just 23; it’s not uncommon for a player so young to fall flat in one particular way to curb their production.

Remember, despite all the struggles he faced this year, he still finished 61st in fWAR/650. That’s a damn good floor, and the ceiling is top-5. I think it wouldn’t be unreasonable to leave him around the top 10 and just write off the year entirely, frankly. Unfortunately for my list, Rodriguez's prior placing hinged on the possibility of his 2022 and 2023 second halves extending to a full season, which seems more unlikely than ever. Hence, his placing here.

19. Garrett Crochet - 25 - Boston Red Sox - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: 32, T: 42)

Crochet’s second half was first a soap opera, then a continually more depressing game of load management only akin to that of an oft-injured NBA star, but don't let that distract you from the incredible skills he possesses. Up to July 6th (the last time he threw more than 90+ pitches, a “true” starter’s workload these days), he had 146 strikeouts in 105 innings, with a 3.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 35% K rate, 5% BB rate, 17% swinging strike rate, 46% groundball rate, and 36% ICR. Other than 3 straight starts in late April, he went without any clunkers either. Consistent, incredible performance built on straight gas from a comically large 6' 6" frame.

His fastball destroys hitters in the zone at 97 mph with 7 feet of extension, only getting hit hard an average amount; his sweeping slider makes left-handed hitters almost unplayable against him, and his cutter brings the arsenal together perfectly with 4 inches of horizontal break, an amount that will induce tons of whiffs at 92 mph. For the most part, he actually stayed away from the sweeper, making him a two-pitch pitcher with similarly great results. That two-pitch priority would concern me slightly with the trajectory of like-minded arms Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon, but he proved open-minded towards the end of the year.

That open-mindedness led Crochet down the same road as Skenes, first trying to reincorporate his sweeper, then tinkering with a slowball. Look out for the latter specifically, which tunnels well with his fastball on a similar release angle and clocked at a scathing 91 mph. The location is erratic, but if he zones it, there will be no issue. In addition, he added a sinker, which is even nastier. It’s 98 mph with 16 inches of arm-side run, and was immediately competitive for his highest whiff pitch. That’s hard to do, by the way, considering all of them are above 30%! Unbelievable.

Garrett's approach is reminiscent of a high-leverage reliever, the role he filled a year ago, except that he can maintain that level for a full six innings. For at least half a season, that is. The only other hesitation is if he can go without getting crushed on such a heavy diet of fastball variants that live in the zone for 180 innings. In the end, I’m confident the Red Sox will make the necessary changes to avoid the worst of it (specifically, more sinkers and changeups), and the unicorn amount of groundballs he’s able to garner relative to his uber-aggressive mentality will allow him to put up a 3 ERA season with volume.

20. Fernando Tatis Jr. - 26 - San Diego Padres - OF (Previous Rank: 6, P: 35, T: 87)

I was the most optimistic about Tatis last year, and although he did significantly improve, there are just too many good players next season for him to maintain his high placing on name alone. His offense returned to near-peak levels, with a .372 xWOBA on a new-best 21% K rate, but the groundballs remain far too plentiful, diminishing his power projection considerably. 4 out of his 5 MLB seasons have seen a 46+ GB%, which makes it hard to be productive for anyone to be productive outside of the likes of Juan Soto.

The big sticking point is his defense. After a 12 FRV and 27 DRS season in 2023, he posted just 1 FRV and 0 DRS this past year. DRS is more volatile than FRV, but both agree in this case. He’s been mid. His arm strength has remained top tier, but his sprint speed is down 1 ft/sec from last year, which has hampered both his range and baserunning, making it his first year where he was a net-negative on the basepaths. After going 25/29 and 29/33 in steal attempts in 2021 and 2023, he was just 9/12 this year. Is it an isolated down year or a business decision to aid long-term self-preservation? Time will tell. Tatis remains high for his great offensive upside, but he seems to be more in the direction of a “middle-of-the-order basher” than “5-tool star.”

21. Austin Riley - 28 - Atlanta Braves - 3B (Previous Rank: 18, P: 103, T: 165)

A reprisal of a ranking this high may be surprising to some, but Riley was as good as ever under the hood last season. His xWOBA has remained between .350 and .380 for the past four years and likewise between .360 and .380 for “Savant” xWOBA. His barrel frequency in 2024 was the 2nd-highest in that time frame, at just under 15%, he hit the ball harder than ever at over 93 mph, and generated the fewest groundballs. The major flaw was his ability to hit fastballs, posting a .280 wOBA on the pitch, despite a .370 xWOBA and a good track record against them in his career. The one demerit is weak defense - his DRS dropped into the negatives for the first full-length season of his career. With some defensive improvement and regression to the offensive mean, I believe there’s nothing to worry about with Austin as he enters what should be his peak seasons.

22. Corbin Carroll - 24 - Arizona Diamondbacks - OF (Previous Rank: 23, P: 73, T: 47)

It looked like a lost season for Carroll after a putrid first half, which included just a 79 wRC+ and a measly 5 home runs in 93 games. He bounced back in a big way in the second half, though, silencing any doubters with a 147 wRC+. He opted for a more aggressive approach that created more strikeouts, but also offered a .300 ISO, 7% more flyballs, 7% more pulled balls, and 18% more hard-hit balls than his first half, according to FanGraphs. It should be noted that the turnaround first showed its head in June, but Carroll’s second half verified the old moniker “form is temporary, class is permanent." Carroll remains a top player, and his second half, which was 7th amongst all position players in fWAR, proved it.

In addition to his offensive turnaround, he made significant jumps defensively. After a -2 FRV season from a weak arm and only above-average range in left, he managed to improve his range enough to be a positive defender while spending half his time in center field. He continued being exceptional on the bases, with more than 11 runs generated above the average, despite 16 fewer stolen base attempts. I still question whether the power from 2023 and the second half of 2024 will stick around, but he deserves recognition for overcoming early-season adversity to, at least temporarily, elevate his game. His overall 2024 performance was remarkably similar to his rookie season and indicates he is about a top-20 player going forward.

23. Zack Wheeler - 34 - Philadelphia Phillies - SP (Previous Rank: 20, P: 23, T: 14)

(Father) Time stops for no one, although Wheeler’s dependability may make one question it as his 35th birthday looms in late May. There are some subtle signs of his aging already, with a loss of half a tick on both his fastball and sinker, which, while minor, continues a downward trajectory worth 2 mph from the days he sat 97 in 2021. His fastball maintained great results with its consistent location at the top of the zone, and his sinker used a new shape, sacrificing some VAA for 2 more inches of horizontal break. The adjustments fought off some of the regression from a year ago to get it back to its 2021-22 form, but it lacks the same deception that earned it 50% chase rates year after year. Eno’s new Stuff+ model validates this, indicating a drop of 1.5 standard deviations in effectiveness over the last three years. In practical terms, that means a descent from the "platonic ideal" of sinkers to simply well above average.

The new splitter tunnels well with the rest of his arsenal, making me question how necessary his problematic curve remains. [Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App]

His sweeper saw improvement, but its location was not up to Zack Wheeler’s usual standards. Part of that is explicable by his choice to drop its horizontal break by 4 inches, enhancing its tunnel with the fastball, and the results justified the change. He also added some extra carry to his cutter, which was a recurring problem for him last year in its first deployment. It doesn’t rival the sinker, but it performs well and takes pressure off his curveball, which continues to get demolished. It's his most unique pitch out of hand, which makes it easy to hit despite very low zone rates, and there’s reason to believe it’ll be heavily downgraded in priority moving forward from the cutter’s success. His splitter also helps make the curve obsolete, finding great success in its debut season. It has a Snell-esque propensity to find the bottom of the zone with great effect: a 40% whiff rate with a .140 xWOBA will do the trick. I guess you can teach an old dog new tricks, after all.

24. Jacob deGrom - 36 - Texas Rangers - SP (Previous Rank: UR, P: DNQ, T: 591)

The deGrominator is back. After missing all but 90 innings in 2022 and 2023, deGrom returned for a handful of starts at the tail end of 2024. While many may expect full deGromination next year after great success, I’m not so convinced. Here’s why.

First, his velocity was down 2 mph on both his slider and fastball, which usually makes up ~90% of his usage. Correspondingly, they are down 8% and 10% in swinging strike rate, respectively, and got crushed. This is all in a limited sample, but that gets to the second point: he will turn 37 in June. How many pitchers regain velocity at that age? Everyone responds to Tommy John surgery differently, but the odds are stacked against him to push his slider farther than a still-blistering 90 mph. For reference, it was his lowest fastball velocity since 2019, and his lowest slider velocity since 2017. He was dominant in those years, but not any more so than Skubal or Skenes year-long, or Crochet during his great run of form in late Spring, for that matter. Jake kicked it into overdrive in the early 2020s when his 4-seam and slider began to sit 99 and 92, but so did his injury troubles. While he missed 10 starts between 2015 and 2020, he's been absent for 93 since. If deGrom wants to actually play more than a full season of baseball, this is the velocity you’re probably gonna get.

deGrom’s fastball remains extremely unique in its approach to the plate despite diminished velocity [Max Bay’s Dead Zone App]

That said, deGrom isn’t going to be some bum. He was always making this list because he is, at worst, an older, better Spencer Strider. I could see him working more changeups and curves into the fold to help win the weak-side platoon matchup against Father Time, but I’m ranking him with the assumption he remains a two-pitch pitcher.

25. Wyatt Langford - 23 - Texas Rangers - OF (Previous Rank: UR, P: 98, T: 115)

If my heart won out over my head, Flyin’ Wyatt would have been on the list last year. But prospect evaluation is not my forte, so his debut on the list comes a year later instead. One can’t talk about Langford without mentioning his insane minor league stint, which even put him on the radar of the Rangers when replacing Adolis Garcia during the 2023 World Series. Despite just 44 games of pro ball, and 17 over High-A, he managed a .360/.480/.677 (1.157 OPS) slashline with 12 SB on 15 attempts, 10 HR, and a walk per game. He also plays a capable LF, which made him a five-tool monster immediately after he left the University of Florida for the Arizona Complex League. The only question was whether he could sustain his play against upper-level or major-league pitching, and how fast he could adapt to any struggles. In 2024, he proved his mental resilience in spades.

Despite most of his season not being eye-popping, it remained serviceable on the low power numbers he could generate. The long sessions in the weight room managed to finally earn some results for him in September; a 180 wRC+ on a 13% barrel rate and a reasonable .324 BABIP will certainly play. His pull rates remained outstanding, and with his good flyball rates, he got to really benefit from his heavy-pulled flyball approach. One specific case here.

My confidence in Langford was certainly aided by this stint, but my focus is more on his overall stability in hitting profile that is akin to a seasoned outfielder like Mookie Betts or Aaron Judge. When comparing him to fellow rookie Jackson Chourio, the difference is stark. Langford already ranks in the 91st percentile of SEAGER (Chourio ranks in the 58th), 71st in pulled flyballs (Chourio ranks 30th), and 63rd in barrel rate (50th). Langford is able to take more walks with his more selective approach, and given that he will likely hit 2nd or 3rd in the years to come, he’ll be able to match Chourio’s stolen base totals in the long run (their baserunning value is already identical!) I can’t give Wyatt the edge over Jackson yet, with only a month of top-caliber play, but there’s no reason to believe it won’t rear its head again by the middle of ‘25.

Here’s another way to evaluate his five tools: of the 23 qualified hitters with more bat speed, only Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Bobby Witt Jr., and William Contreras boast a lower strikeout rate. In addition, the only players with the speed of Langford are the aforementioned Witt and Elly de la Cruz, offering 40 stolen base upside. All told, he can hit for power, runs at a 98th-percentile pace, plays above-average defense, has great contract frequencies, and manages elite swing decisions. After just 177 games in pro ball, Wyatt Langford already has demonstrated the skills to be a top-25 player next season.

Conclusion

That’s all for part one. Part two, with players ranked 26-50, will be out in about a month if all goes well. Various “SP to Watch” articles will also be posted in between to keep content going. Hope you enjoyed!

Sources

FanGraphs

BaseballReference

PitcherList

BaseballSavant

Robert Orr’s “Realestmuto” Dashboard

SwingGraphs

Maxwell Resnick’s Tunneling App/Article

Michael Rosen’s Pitch Plot

Max Bay’s Dead Zone App

TJStats’ Pitching Summary code (for ranking graphic)