My Top 50 MLB Players, Part 1 [1-25]
I rank and discuss the players I think will be the 50 best next season (prorated). Surely this won't be controversial, right?
Various notes before I begin:
The methodology is that injury risk is only relevant in the most severe cases (i.e., Kershaw, Buxton, deGrom). Injuries are inevitable, and some players will tend to get them more than others, even if it was just random chance. Of course, some injuries are more likely to be reaggravated in the future, but I'm not going to play doctor and try to figure out which injuries are problematic enough to matter. Health is essential, but I'm not the one to speak on it - outside of the most extreme cases where it's endured for years and clearly influences how the teams use them.
They are ranked in order of players I would select in a theoretical draft for next year and only next year, prorated. If you want to consider it a projected WAR/650 list that’s adjusted for position, go ahead. That's the general vibe. Whenever I reference WAR, it is raw Baseball Reference WAR (rWAR) for pitchers and FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) for hitters.
There will be less stat explanations than normal because it’s long enough as it is. Google is your friend. Pretty much all the stats I use are referenced in other articles I’ve written anyway.
Substack tells me the post is too long to fit in an email, so if’s cut off, that’s why. Oops.
Lastly, it’s split into two parts. This will cover the first 25, with an abridged list at the end. Here we go:
1. Shohei Ohtani, 28 - SP/DH - Los Angeles Angels
The time for the coronation of Ohtani as the best player in the game has come. I don't believe Trout inherently did anything wrong to lose the spot. In fact, Trout has only continued to develop the power in his game in preparation for the inevitable decline of his speed and defensive abilities in the coming years. But Ohtani is doing something generational, and all top projection systems - ATC, The Bat X, Steamer - have him as the best player in baseball next season by a wide margin, and for good reason.
The exciting thing about Ohtani is that coming into MLB, it seemed to be a common notion that he was a hitter that happened to be able to pitch. He threw only every 6th day, experienced significant volatility with command, and had to shut down his pitching entirely in 2019 due to injury. Now, it's arguably the opposite: Ohtani is a bonafide ace who also can hit when he's not pitching. As a pitcher, his walk rate was a career-low 6.7% in 2022, and his K rate peaked at 33.2%, 2nd-highest among qualified starters. He's top 5 in virtually every pitching analytic, primarily from a perfect tunnel between his 97 mph fastball and 85 mph slider, the latter of which is his most thrown pitch. The 17-inch difference in horizontal movement is ideal, according to this article by Maxwell Resnick (worth your time if you want to learn more about pitch tunneling, btw), creating nightmares for hitters despite a fastball that lacks real standout qualities outside the velocity. Did I mention he throws a splitter 12% of the time with a .120 xWOBA, 48% whiff rate, and a negative pCRA (projected ERA based on the quality of contact, strikeouts, and walks)? That's not to mention a sinker he added mid-year, which has performed well in limited use. The man can do everything.
Ohtani's hitting is also fantastic, of course. His 53% hard-hit rate and 22.3% barrel rate from a year ago seemed unlikely to be repeated - only Aaron Judge matched those marks this year - but he remained in the top 10% in pretty much every hitting metric. He cut his K rate by 6% in the process, from 30% to 24%, which is shocking considering how long he's been in the league at this point. An incredible improvement in out-of-zone contract rate by 12% will do that. He's also sneaky fast with a 75th-percentile sprint speed that could let him field at a decent level in a pinch, and makes him a serious base-stealing threat.
Is $500 million on the table for Ohtani in 2022? I would be shocked if it wasn't. If he regresses on one side of the ball, he can always still play the other. With last year's market and his marketing capabilities off the field? I'd predict somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 yr/$500 million to the Dodgers.
2. Mike Trout, 31 - OF - Los Angeles Angels
Are the Angels the Oilers of MLB? Despite having 2 of the consensus top 5 players in the league, and in this list's opinion, the two very best, the Angels crawled to just 73 wins last year. I don't think there's much to justify here - Trout played only ¾ of the year and didn't qualify for the batting title, yet he still managed 40 HR and 80 RBI to go along with a 176 wRC+ and top 20 spot on the fWAR leaderboard. His BaseballSavant page remains a sea of red, and he is still the consensus best hitter in the league.
It's still worth noting that he will not play CF much longer as he continues to close in on his mid-30s, and there are signs of concern at the plate. His discipline numbers dove this year from a sustained 80th percentile chase rate between 2017 and 2020 to just 17th percentile in 2022. His career-high whiff rate between 2015 and 2020 was an excellent 22%. In an injury-filled 2021, it was 27%, and in 2022, 30%. Is it a momentary dip from a small sample or the beginning of the end of Trout's offensive dominance?
3. Aaron Judge, 30 - OF - New York Yankees
The reigning AL MVP had a season for the ages. It landed him a 9-year/$360 million deal, which, given the offseason developments afterward, looks like as much of a steal as one can get in the star free-agent market. His mix of power and discipline makes him so potent: on the power side, since Statcast was created in 2015 (min. 50 Batted Ball Events (BBE)), his 2022 season is tied for 2nd in average exit velocity (95.8 mph), only trailing Tatis in the shortened 2020 season (95.9 mph). His 26.2% barrel rate was 1st, 1.3% ahead of his rookie self of 2017, and 2nd in hard hit rate, at 60.9%, trailing 2020 Tatis again. His 99.8 mph exit velocity on fly balls, the balls in play that are the true money makers, was 2nd again, to…Tatis in 2020. He had 100.0 mph on the nose! Give him some credit.
In terms of discipline, he consistently posts walk rates above 13% with chase rates in the 80th+ percentile. When he gets pitches in his wheelhouse, he crushes them: he had a .749 SLG against fastballs and a .739 SLG against breaking balls in 2022. It won’t be that high next season, especially against the breaking balls, but he’s always feasted on fastballs. Those two attributes and stellar outfield defense make him an incredible asset with a great floor.
Given his enormous size, Judge's future seasons are hard to project despite that great floor, but I believe he has a few more good years in him. His discipline and power should allow him to be solid for most of that new contract and certainly for next year. He's also been injury-free the last two seasons, with many giving credit to Eric Cressey and the new Yankee training staff for introducing new things to the training regimen, like yoga. Not a bad idea so far.
Despite his magical year, the sustainability of the leaps that created it should be called into question. Judge produced over 11 wins of value despite only generating +3 Outs Above Average (OAA) in the OF (+1 in CF), in no small part from the 16 bases he stole on 19 tries in 2022 (a career-high). I’ve already mentioned that I doubt he will continue to hit the soft stuff as hard as he has. But he'll continue to be a 150 wRC+ hitter with solid outfield defense for the next four years at least, which keeps him as the elite of the elite.
4. Mookie Betts, 30 - OF - Los Angeles Dodgers
I was high on Betts going into 2022 after an injury-ridden 2021 season that left people dropping him severely down their ranks. I held pat, though; Betts was playing hurt and still contributed 3.8 fWAR, courtesy of a 130 OPS+ and -1 OAA, which placed him in the 36th percentile of all qualified defenders - previously, he had never been lower than 90th. Last year, he recovered to the 86th percentile. His hurt hip certainly didn't help his sprint speed either, falling from an elite 28.3 to an average 27.1 ft/sec in just one year.
His sprint speed declined further in 2022, and while his OAA recovered to a +4, that's less than he put up in the shortened 2020 season when he put up +5 and a far cry from the +12 he posted in his MVP season. At the plate, his swing rate in the zone is higher than ever after a 9% increase in the last two years to 67%, a decision he's consciously made to create more hard contact in the air with his decline in speed. It worked well in the past season, producing 2% more barrels and a better-batted ball distribution of the bat in exchange for a slight decrease in walk rate. There are rumors Betts will be moved down the order this year, which makes sense given this change in his skillset.
Betts is clearly adjusting his approach as he ages and starts to slow down, whether it be hip-related or not. While some may not have him this high, ATC projects another superb line of a 142 wRC+, 14 SB, and 5.7 fWAR. I also still believe in the underlying talent that's presented itself throughout his accomplished career.
5. Jose Ramirez, 30, 3B - Cleveland Guardians
Surprising pretty much everyone in 2022, Ramirez signed a 7-year/$124 million contract to remain in Cleveland. It's undoubtedly a heartwarming gesture that the Guardians will take, given it's typically a painful task of re-signing a star of top-10 quality. BaseballTradeValues is the most accurate site for portraying players' present value in a theoretical trade (through too extensive of modeling for me to understand), and they give him an incredible valuation of 84.7 post-extension, or put in other words, is worth $84.7 million of value. We can then claim (to my somewhat-limited knowledge) that Ramirez's value in a 7-year contract in the model is $208.7 million, not $124 million. For reference, the "Big 4" of shortstops this past offseason signed contracts that peaked at a value of 7 in the model by Carlos Correa and bottomed out with -13.2 by Trea Turner. The Guardians got a steal.
Ramirez is often named the most underrated player in baseball, and he might just be. For someone who simply produces, he flies a bit under the radar; he's put up 6 win seasons every full year since 2018, sans his mysteriously poor-performing 2019, where he went A.W.O.L. for half the season and still put up a respectable overall stat line. I still maintain he deserved the 2020 AL MVP award, the high watermark of his career individually, with a 167 wRC+, 10 SB on 13 attempts, and 17 HR in just 58 games. I see Ramirez staying the course that he sailed in 2022 when he had a 139 wRC+, 29 HR, 20 SB on 27 tries, and 3 OAA at 3rd. While his xWOBA was a shockingly below-league-average .320, I'm confident he will return to elite performance in all metrics in 2023. Did I mention he's the fifth most-shifted-on player in the league, and with the shift changes coming, he's likely to be one of the change's biggest benefactors? He's set.
6. Juan Soto, 24, OF - San Diego Padres
Did you know Juan Soto is younger than Adley Rutschman? The 24-year-old outfielder is one of the top players in the game despite still being the age of a potential #1 prospect. With the current market, I believe his next contract could be in the neighborhood of 15-years/$600 million. After all, he will only be 26 when his team control runs out after 2024. He's worthy of high praise, but I suspect I'm a little lower than him on most, despite shift changes that will play great into his future production. Everybody knows Soto's game: great discipline, contact, and power with questionable defending. What's not to like?
The main problem with Soto lies in his ability to elevate the ball. This wasn't always an issue; in 2019, he had a 12.5° average launch angle, which was just .2° off Yordan Alvarez’s LA this season. Soto’s launch angle was a decent 9.1° this past season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. It's often more insightful to look at launch angle standard deviation, or the consistency in which they can elevate the ball, rather than simply taking the average. His 26.2° mark in 2019 was about average, but has significantly regressed since. In 2022, he posted a standard deviation of 30.8°, which was bottom 20 among hitters with 100+ BBE. In combination with his 47.1% groundball rate, which was also one of the bottom rates in the league, he’s set for a low BABIP. This is certainly true for Soto: he had the 12th-lowest mark in 2022 at .249. When he does elevate it, he has a fly ball exit velocity of 95.3 mph, only 0.2 mph behind Giancarlo Stanton and Vlad Guerrero Jr, both of which are. in the top 10! He’s so close to being so good.
While a .1166 R^2 is quite low (only ~11% of variance in BABIP is explainable by SD(LA)), it remains a solid tool to consult. Based on this data, each point of SD(LA) decreases a player’s BABIP by .005.
The last thing to touch on Soto is his outfield defense, an ongoing battle for him. Last year he put up a horrid -16 OAA in RF, which was good (or bad?) for 2nd worst in the league, behind "left fielder" Andrew Vaughn, who is certainly not an outfielder. With the departure of Jurickson Profar this past offseason, Soto may be able to return to his more natural position of LF. Is he taking it easy and protecting himself in preparation for a future extension? Maybe, but he'll never be more than an average fielder either way, and he hasn’t played LF consistently since 2020. I don't care, though. #SototoLFin2023. His stats demand it!
Will he learn to elevate the ball eventually? I believe so. He was able to do it in 2019, and I can't imagine that he will struggle with it forever with how selective he is at the plate anyway. Some people question if this passive mentality at the plate contributes to his struggles: he swung at fewer pitches than everyone else in the league last year, but he was only 13th in called strike rate. Eno Sarris wrote a great article on the Athletic about the value of taking pitches at the plate. In short - unless you’re a transcendent offensive talent (like Barry Bonds), increasing one’s take rate is virtually always better for offensive outcomes. Soto’s already at the pinnacle, where he can do damage with swings (.501 xSLG) and his takes (19.6 BB%).
If Juan Soto figures out his launch angle woes, he will soar to unbelievable heights - it’s the last flaw in his offensive arsenal. That .350/.500/.700 slash line he posted in 2020? Not as unlikely for Soto in 162 games as you may think.
7. Jacob deGrom, 34, SP - Texas Rangers
deGrom is a story well told at this point. He is one of the best pitchers in history who struggles to stay on the field as he ages. Between 2017 and 2020, he averaged 219 innings per 162 games while making 107 out of an "expected" 108 starts (32 starts per full year, 12 in 2020). Since then, he's started just 26 games of the 64 one would aspire for. This degradation of his health makes it all the more peculiar that the *checks notes* Rangers(?!) would give him a five-year contract. While I'm not one to typically put too much weight into injury history, deGrom is about as big of an injury concern as one can be. He has increased his velocity year-to-year, debuting in 2014 at 94.2, reaching 96.9 in 2019, and a stellar 99.2 in 2021. His slider and changeup have also begun being thrown harder, which creates much better results but puts way more strain on the arm. Is this the entire reason for his health woes? Who knows. Unless he purposefully decreases his velocities to rely more on his world-class command, I would only trust him to throw up to 20 starts in a given year. This ranking reflects that belief - and he’s still the #1 pure SP. Legendary.
DeGrom’s spike in 4-seam velocity to the 98.5-99 mph range entering 2020 coincides with the rapid degradation of his health. 2020 was only a 60-game season.
DeGrom's repertoire rides on his fastball, which finds so much success because it's thrown harder than every other one in the league (tied with Hunter Greene for 1st in the league at nearly 99 mph) and flatter than all others (only behind Freddy Peralta). Flat fastballs always perform better for whiffs up in the zone and help set up his 92.6 mph slider down in the zone. His curveball also plays, but given he dominates everyone with his fastball and slider, he never uses it - nor his changeup, for that matter. With the Rangers on the hook for deGrom for five years, it'll be interesting to see if they take any measures to preserve him.
For fun, what if he’s reasonably healthy? I’ll just aggregate 2022 and 2021 for this thought experiment; he combined for 26 starts in those seasons. His 2022 wasn’t even great for his standards, with an ERA above 3.00.
DeGrom’s 2021-2022 stats [BaseballReference]
The results are the following, all amongst starters:
248 strikeouts to 19 walks is a 40.6 K-BB%. The record since 1920 (min. 100 IP, 12870 qualified seasons) is 2019 Gerrit Cole, at 34.0%. That’s the same gap as between 2nd and…18th (2018 deGrom).
His 13 K:BB ratio is 2nd only to Kershaw’s 2016 season (15.64), but his .633 WHIP shatters 2016 Clayton Kershaw’s record of 0.720.
His 1.60 FIP is 2nd only to Pedro’s 1999 season, which was impressively accomplished during the peak of the steroid era.
At the bottom, you can see the projections for a full season. If he accomplished that feat (big if), it’d be, in my opinion, the greatest season ever pitched. In his age 34 season. Insanity.
8. Fernando Tatis Jr., 24, SS/OF - San Diego Padres
Tatis, on a rate basis, was arguably the best player in the world. The key word is 'was,' because following an entire missed season, first for a dubious motorcycle incident (of many), and then a steroid suspension, people have many questions: How much of his mythical production was natural and will come with him to 2023? Where will he play on the field? Has he taken up a different favored mode of transport?
I'll try to answer each question in order (maybe not the last one). Tatis' production is likely legit, and the steroids were, in my opinion, used to speed up the recovery from his motorcycle injury. If that’s the case, his stats are still “pure,” or as pure as they can be for someone popped for roids. I still view him as a shortstop; he had +4 OAA in 2021 despite leading the league in errors, putting him ahead of Bogaerts' -1 last year, with room to grow. Tatis has come a long way from the -16 OAA at SS in his rookie year! Kim outdoes both, though, having contributed +8 while filling in for Tatis last season. Despite this, I would imagine Bogaerts starts at SS and, in a Jeter-esque move, forces the superior defender (Kim) to 2B. Tatis would then move to RF, where he's unproven but not entirely unskilled with his athleticism, and Soto to his true home of LF. Here's a tidbit if you're unmoved: In 2021, he led all hitters in fWAR, with 7.3, while hitting to a tune of a 157 wRC+, 42 HR, and stealing 25 bases. He played 130 games.
I have him down at 8 when he could easily be top 3 because, with his consistent shoulder problems, it's unclear how quickly he'll return to top form. Will he be forced to take sabbaticals to rest when it acts up, with the Padres on the hook for him until 2034? Will he take it easy and coast with the Padres' improved roster, given they’re pretty much locked for the playoffs? All questions that can't be answered now, unfortunately.
9. Corbin Burnes, 28, SP - Milwaukee Brewers
Corbin Burnes may be the new evergreen starter in MLB. Apart from regression in command and spin rate from lack of sticky substances, his repertoire was shockingly similar in 2022 to his 2021 Cy Young season. His cutter remains his dominant pitch, throwing it 55% of the time in 2022 at an average speed of 95 mph. Burnes uses the pitch in every situation: out of all 18 starters who threw their cutter 500 times in 2022, he was 5th in whiff rate, 4th in CSW rate, 10th lowest in barrel rate, and 7th in ground ball rate, despite being the only one of the group to both have it as their primary pitch and be a starter. This success can be attributed to its high velocity - Graham Ashcraft of the Reds being the only starter to surpass it - and strong secondaries.
For secondaries, he turns to a curveball (18%), changeup (10%), and slider (9%), All have whiff rates above 45% and hard-hit rates below 30% at unique speeds, which is a one-of-a-kind mix. He also throws a sinker that is a change of pace in a tunnel with the cutter. He has struggled to command it, giving it lackluster results, but with some refinement, I’m certain it can find success. Against righties, he opts for Triple C's with a cutter/curve/changeup mix, and against lefties, cutter/curve/slider with the sinker being mixed in. With four elite pitches, it's no wonder Burnes performs the way he does so consistently.
Many people were worried about Burnes due to a tough one-month stretch, which I'm approximating as August 18 to September 24, where he coughed up 28 earned runs in just 48 innings. This stretch included a particularly dull period of conceding 7 (4 earned) at the Dodgers, immediately followed by 5 in 6 innings against the Pirates and 5 in 5.2 against the Diamondbacks. Of course, in the midst of it, all was an 8-inning 14 strikeout gem against the Giants, which is highly unusual for someone truly struggling. But people don't care about that. They want blood!
Anyway, after taking a look under the hood over this month-long period, there's nothing to worry about. His average exit velocity was the same at 87.2 mph, his xFIP slightly rose to 3.17 from his average of 2.85, and bad luck appears to be the true culprit - a 60.2 LOB% is unsustainable. It's important to remember that all players' performances trend up and down naturally, and there will be poor stretches for all players, even the best ones. Given there were no red flags in this eight-start sample, Burnes certainly looks like a safe pair of hands for Milwaukee. Expect more of the same in 2023.
Corbin Burnes' repertoire during that poor stretch in late 2022. His cutter (FC)’s poor performance was the clear issue, but the rest of his secondaries, aside from his changeup (CH), stayed in form. I think the pitch metrics confirm my stance. [Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard]
10. Bryce Harper, 30, OF/DH - Philadelphia Phillies
Can Harper stop getting hit by pitches? A pitch to the face cost him time in 2021, and a pitch to the wrist and thumb in 2022 cost him even more while destroying any form of rhythm he had from the first half of the year. Harper's second-half OPS of .676 following his return from surgery dragged down his overall numbers considerably; his .990 OPS and 168 wRC+ in the first half are far more representative of his proper level. The only reason he isn't higher is that he's not great in the field: -6 OAA in RF in 2021 is certainly not great in the small outfield of Citizens Bank. He's expected to reprise that role next year after surgery to repair his torn ACL, leaving him out for the first two months of the year. When he returns, the shift changes, coinciding with a return to elite form, may allow him to surpass his 2021 success and near his 197 wRC+ 2015 season.
11. Nolan Arenado, 31, 3B - St. Louis Cardinals
My continued loyalty to Arenado has been rewarded following a disappointing first year in St. Louis. People panned his 2021 season and adored his 2022 one, despite being remarkably similar, except for his BABIP. His .041 gain in BABIP in 2022 is almost perfectly reflected in a .038 improvement in AVG, .046 in OBP, and .039 in SLG. A positive regression for BABIP was expected, though: his .249 BABIP in 2021 was his career worst, apart from the shortened 2020 season. He has a career .290 BABIP and frequently ran .310+ at his peak, so a .280-.290 BABIP is reasonable for someone moving from hitter-friendly Colorado to pitcher-friendly Saint Louis. His defense also made some gains, from +10 OAA in 2021 to +14 this past season. Did you know he averages +14.5 OAA per full season since it began being tracked in 2016? The man is a walking vacuum.
In summary: his 151 wRC+ perfectly balances out his 113 last season; I believe he's a true-talent 130 wRC+ guy currently, and his Platinum Glove level defense will likely remain excellent with future Platinum Glove contender Tommy Edman to his left. For what it's worth, this is also the precise wRC+ Steamer gives him for 2023. I swear I didn't peek beforehand. Unfortunately, Steamer has him as the 15th-best overall player. It would have been a little too perfect.
12. Freddie Freeman, 33, 1B - Los Angeles Dodgers
I don't have much to say about Freeman. He's so consistently excellent that the Rays even offered him a 6-year contract to play for them. For them, that’s like proposing an Ilya Kovalchuk contract. This once-in-a-decade offer was for good reason too: he’s a rock-solid player with a profile that should age beautifully. He hasn't been outside the top 4% in quality of contact since it first started being tracked in 2015, always defends well at first base, and has sneaky value on the bases. He doesn't always hit the ball hard, but his optimized approach creates tons of success with line drives. He led the league in 2022 at a 27.5% clip, more than 2% more than 2nd place Luis Arraez, whose whole profile is to hit line drives. He will likely start to decline in the next few years, but a selective approach in a stacked Dodger lineup lends itself to a regression similar to Votto's. Like his Team Canada teammate, he can remain a valuable contributor as he sees the contract through with little fuss.
13. Yordan Alvarez, 25, DH - Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez has been a hitter to watch since 2019 when he went .343/.443/.752 (~183 OPS+) with 23 HR in 56 games in the admittedly hitter-friendly PCL, and he finally delivered on the potential this year. A 185 wRC+ with 37 HR in 135 games will certainly do nicely, especially in a ballpark that suppresses offense by lefties like Minute Maid. The last great true DH-only season was J.D. Martinez in 2018, and Yordan had arguably a better season despite the missed time from injury. Is he for real?
Well, yes and no. Alvarez’s reason for success will certainly stick around -- he demolishes fastballs. His xWOBA in 2022 vs. them was .525, good for around a 1.300 OPS. Coincidentally, both of his two most memorable moments of 2022 were fastballs, his home run vs. Robbie Ray in the ALDS and his home run vs. Jose Alvarado in the World Series. He did well against almost all pitches, only struggling vs. curveballs and cutters. Is that a sign of weakness? It's hard to say, with them only making up 20% of his PAs, but if there's something real there, teams will undoubtedly adjust in 2023. I'm not confident that he will be posting 1.000 OPS seasons every year, but I'm very optimistic that he will be the "next Harper," with .400+ xWOBAs for years to come with elite barrel rates from the left side, albeit with fewer walks. Yordan's ceiling for walks at the current moment is around 14% - his career high - while Harper's averages over 16.5%.
On the defensive end, he's certainly not fast, but he does have a great arm. This fact gave people the impression that he was a decent defender in left field, but even with the small dimension of left field in Minute Maid, this is not the case. Despite not qualifying for the OAA leaderboard on BaseballSavant, he still ran -7 in LF. If you prorate his attempts to Juan Soto's, who put up a horrid -16, you get…-26. That's tied with 2016 Matt Kemp for the lowest since the stat started being tracked. Yeah, maybe keep him as a batting specialist. (It's a cricket term.)
I see Alvarez as a perennial top-10 hitter who could shine like this in individual seasons. His absurd 21% barrel rate and 61% hard-hit rate - both of which were 2nd to you-know-who, will regress, but most likely not any lower than what Ohtani's did. This year Ohtani posted rates of 17% and 50%, respectively, good for 7th and 19th in the league. If Alvarez does that next year, that earns this placement for me. Be excited for more Air Yordan.
14. Gerrit Cole, 32, SP - New York Yankees
Gerrit Cole made an interesting change to his arsenal in 2022, choosing to add a cutter to his loaded arsenal. It follows a league-wide trend of adding the pitch to create more synergy within the repertoire, given the flexibility of the pitch in how it can be designed. The cutter can be thrown primarily for whiffs, like Burnes, or for weak contact, like Kyle Gibson. Cole's cutter opted for whiffs, mirroring his general approach, but he still struggled to be productive with it. Despite the cutter owning a 31.8% whiff rate, fourth amongst MLB starters, it still struggled, and posted a .358 xWOBA and 5.42 pCRA - both worst amongst his pitches at season's end. He ended up retiring it after a disastrous June 9 start at the Twins, when it was responsible for conceding back-to-back home runs to Correa and Buxton in the first inning and contributed just 7% CSW on 20 tries. I first suspected he simply had poor command of the pitch, but it's never that simple with pitching.
His numbers did slightly improve after dropping the cutter, going from a 24.5 K-BB%, 2.78 xFIP, and 2.91 SIERA to a 27 K-BB%, 2.77 xFIP, and 2.70 SIERA. One may logically conclude it was all the cutter, then, but his changeup was performing just as poorly at a 4.96 pCRA and .309 xWOBA, and his curve was doing even worse at 6.81 pCRA and .401 xWOBA. After he dropped it, they soon recovered, but was that because of the cutter? PLV (a new pitch-grading stat by PitcherList which scales every pitch from 0-10 based on expected outcomes), loves all five of his pitches, marking his fastball and slider as elite and his cutter as well above-average
Having five above-average offerings is a surefire way to be a dominant starter.
He added the cutter as a 5th pitch to replace his sinker, but it was used the 3rd most in the first three months of the year. Would the cutter have done better with a ~5% usage rate? Maybe, but he used it only 2% of the time after that Twins game and it still got completely crushed for an 8.42 pCRA and .586 xWOBA. Who knows. I don't expect it to be dropped entirely for next year, so he'll get another crack at it.
Otherwise, Cole was virtually identical to his 2021 Cy Young runner-up season. He still struggles with home runs, but the combination of the division, the home park, and the propensity to throw fastballs up in the zone to set up whiffs and breaking balls down in the zone leads to it being an issue for him. It's not a significant problem, though - Verlander gave up more than Cole's 33 in 2022 in 2019 when he won the Cy Young with the exact same M.O. Cole should be fine if he keeps baserunners off the basepaths and retains his velocity. His fastball is elite at 98 mph with above-average VAA and spin efficiency that induces extra whiffs. His great slider generates 2 inches of vertical movement above the average, with good speed ranges throughout (and are PLV approved!). Look forward (or don't, if you're a Cole hater) to another Cy Young-level campaign next year.
15. Shane McClanahan, 25, SP - Tampa Bay Rays
I'm a true McClanafan. I loved his debut season in 2021, and I'm overjoyed that he broke through last season to be a true ace. The last two months of the season for Shane was certainly a letdown as a result of injury, but he's still a monster on the mound. No more calling him barely top 10 on my timeline! As a reminder, this is what he did up to August 1, out of starters with 50+ innings: 2.07 ERA (4th), 0.83 WHIP (1st), 2.13 xFIP (1st), 29.4 K-BB% (2nd), 18% SwStr rate (1st), 2.36 SIERA (2nd), .252 xWOBA (2nd), 36.2% CSW (1st). This list has proven that McClanahan is really, really good, or he was. What changed in August and September?
First, unlike Burnes during his poor stretch, McClanahan clearly got worse. 12.2 K-BB%, 28.9% CSW, 4.09 SIERA, 3.74 xFIP, and .315 xWOBA were all significantly worse than the early parts of the year, with an IL stint for shoulder impingement in the middle for good measure. The key differences come from his curveball and slider, both of which lost 1.5 mph in the second sample compared to the first. This decline wouldn't typically be too much of a concern, given his fastball velocity went unchanged. The critical issue is that the break on his slider and curve both got considerably worse. His curveball lost 3 inches of both horizontal and vertical movement, while his slider gained four inches of vertical movement and lost an inch of horizontal. The change in break was likely the real killer, hurting his tunneling and command while making him lose half his strikeout rate in the final two months. It dropped 15%! For reference, that's the difference between Carlos "$160 million ace for the Yankees" Rodon and Adam "Old enough to be a grandpa" Wainwright.
Despite this, his repertoire is absurd. All of his pitches are above average; his changeup and curveball are incredible, his fastball is excellent, and his slider does a fine job vs. lefties. Remember, this includes the abysmal two-month stretch. His aggregate PLV is second-best among qualified starters, only trailing…Jacob deGrom. Good company.
Shane McClanahan is an ace. The only things that can limit him are the Rays micromanaging and his shoulder - the stuff is unreal.
Now, is this an issue to be worried about in the future? Who knows. He and the Rays will have had all offseason to fix it, and he obviously didn't make the adjustment on purpose. No decrease in fastball velocity during his most tumultuous stretch is also a good sign and puts a lot of doubt on the "he couldn't handle the workload late in the year" theory. He's likely good as new in 2023 with his repertoire in top form, and I would buy him everywhere. Fantasy baseball, Topps cards, Cy Young odds, wherever you can. Not financial or gambling advice.
16. Ronald Acuna Jr., 25, OF - Atlanta Braves
2022 was a worrying year for Acuna. His contact quality dropped dramatically, contributing to a career-low 114 wRC+ and 15 HR in 119 games. His sprint speed dropped from an elite 29.4 feet/sec to a still-great 28.2, his stolen base success rate was down to just 73%, his ISO was down 200 points, and he produced -7 OAA in RF, placing him in the bottom 6% of all fielders. What's going on?
I suspect that Acuna was still playing hurt as a direct result of the ACL tear that ended his 2021 season. This isn't that uncommon - look at Betts with his hip in 2021 - and neither is a sudden return to form. It seems unlikely that the tear would permanently leave him struggling for power, speed, and discipline and make him significantly worse at hitting every type of pitch. When it rains, it pours, I guess.
Acuna just turned 25, and he could have his best season yet in 2023. The talent is too good, and unlike Betts, he may have even more to show: in an injury-shortened 2021 season, where he had a 157 wRC+, 24 HR, and 17 SB in just 82 games with plus defense. An offseason of rest could do wonders for getting back to the level of play he’s certainly capable of. If he has another down year, though, it'll be very concerning for both the Braves and, most importantly, his spot on my ranking.
17. Julio Rodriguez, 22, OF - Seattle Mariners
Of all the people on the list, I'm most confident in Julio's long-term future. I view him as the only player with a realistic chance at being #1 in the next two or three years, outside of the two perennial favorites of Trout and Ohtani. He can simply do it all: he had a 5.3 fWAR with a 146 wRC+ and +9 OAA in CF in 2022, a great rookie year on its own, without even mentioning his abysmal first month, which dragged him down considerably with a .544 OPS and 37% K rate. His hitting excluding that adjustment period was sublime: a .905 OPS (161 wRC+) in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park with 28 HR in just 112 games.
The two biggest things limiting Julio are his discipline and groundball rate. In the minors, he walked over 10% of the time, but in his rookie year, he was down at just 7.1%. To establish himself as a true leadoff hitter, he will have to improve that mark; he did rank 29th after that first month in OBP at .355 nonetheless. Meanwhile, his ground ball rate for the year was a less-than-stellar 46%, just 1.1% behind groundball merchant Juan Soto. While Julio's speed is elite, his power is considerably hampered by this reality. His .345 BABIP can also be expected to decrease if he continues hitting ground balls at this rate and consistency as well.
Overall, Julio should be slated for hefty progression in his sophomore season. ATC projects him to be a 6-win player in 2022 and 5th overall. While I'm not that high on him this early, with the proper improvements to his current skillset, he can soar and easily be a top-5 player entering 2024.
18. Paul Goldschmidt, 35, 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt is Old Reliable, and he hit the lottery in 2022. He’s had a 130 wRC+ every season since 2013, with the exception of his inaugural season in St. Louis in 2019, and a .365+ xWOBA every year other than 2019, when he had a .359. He clocked in at 177 wRC+ and a .419 wOBA in 2022, but a .367 xWOBA and a .368 BABIP at age 34 makes that unlikely to stick - his sprint speed isn’t what it used to be. I’d chalk him up as an older and slightly worse version of Freddie Freeman - everyone is surprised when they have a truly elite year, but not that surprised. Perhaps I’m too harsh on the first base position in general, but this feels about right, despite people putting him in the top 10 in pretty much every other list I’ve seen. I’m curious if he continues hitting through 2024, when he may be able to get a late, last payday in free agency. ATC slates him for a 145 wRC+, which seems appropriate for the career 144 wRC+ first baseman.
19. Kyle Tucker, 26, OF - Houston Astros
While many are familiar with Yordan's 2019 minor-league season, Tucker was lurking in the shadows on that same Round Rock team, posting a .909 OPS (~110 OPS+ - PCL is a hitter's paradise) during his tenure on the team until his promotion to the major-league squad in September. Since then, he's proven to be a five-tool player with +15 OAA, 53 steals on 61 attempts (87%), and a 129 wRC+ in 398 games.
Despite a strong 2022 season with a 129 wRC+, +5 OAA in RF, and 25 steals on 29 attempts adding up to 4.7 fWAR, there's still room for considerable growth on the offensive end. In 2021, he posted an elite .396 xWOBA; this was good for 14th in baseball. In 2022, he regressed to a still solid .348 xWOBA and a career-low .261 BABIP, 20 points below his career average. With shift changes coming to 2023, of which he was a victim more than 90% of plate appearances last year, Tucker could easily surpass a 150 wRC+ next year with 20 SB and +5 OAA - a performance that would likely merit him top-10 player and MVP consideration. I'm very excited about Tucker entering 2023.
20. Trea Turner, 29, SS - Philadelphia Phillies
I'll regret this placement - one way or the other. I wrote an article on Trea Turner which helps rationalize why I am not as high on him as others, but I still believe he's a quality player. This placement puts him around the top 15 hitters, which given the three major projection systems of ATC, The BATX, and Steamer, place him as 10th, 11th, and 22nd, respectively, in raw fWAR amongst hitters (and slightly lower in fWAR/650), I think it's more than a fair assessment.
The spark notes for the article: He's swinging and missing more than ever in an attempt to hit more fly balls, which inherently contradicts how he should be looking to play with his generational speed. Despite these attempts, he isn't hitting the ball any harder in the air. Dodger Stadium is as good of a park for RHB as Citizens Bank Park for everything other than triples, which matters more for Turner than most - although still likely not by any noticeable margin. With Alec Bohm to his left instead of Justin Turner and the impending shift changes, his defense may suffer too.
P.S. He’s hit 4 HR so far in the World Baseball Classic, including a game-winning Grand Slam against Venezuela. Is he an avid reader who’s out to get me? Either way, he showed me. The truth hurts.
21. J.T. Realmuto, 32, C - Philadelphia Phillies
J.T. Realmuto does it all. Despite playing the always difficult catcher position, he's been above league average on the bases every year since 2015, at the plate since 2016, and at framing since 2017. Generally, one expects a catcher to be above average at hitting or fielding, with baserunning as a complete lost cause. This overall dominance has powered him to 5.43 fWAR/650 since 2016, with no signs of stopping in 2023. Did you know he has by far the best pop time of any catcher at 1.82 sec? 2nd-5th place are tied at 1.89, which is an eternity of a difference. Also, he stole 21 bases last year. The second most by any player designated as a catcher is…6. He’s playing for Team USA too? Man, it must be great to be great.
J.T. Realmuto has been top-3 in fWAR every year for the past five years—a paragon of efficiency. Red points are his totals.
22. Adley Rutschman, 25, C - Baltimore Orioles
Who had more fWAR in 2022: Sean Murphy in 148 games or Adley Rutschman in 113? That's right, rookie and future MVP - book it - Adley Rutschman was a complete monster in 2022 and should be respected for it. His fWAR/650 was 7.3 in 2022, which ties Nolan Arenado for third amongst all hitters, just 0.1 behind 2nd place Manny Machado, and a win ahead of Julio Rodriguez. At the plate, he sported a 14% walk rate and an 18% K rate with modest power. He was tied for 2nd with Jonah Heim at +9.1 framing runs, despite playing 140 fewer innings behind the plate and 2nd in blocks above average, which is a stat that didn’t even exist when I started writing this. In total, he had +18 DRS (defensive stat alternative to OAA that works with catchers) at catcher, which is 2nd to Jonah Heim. Realmuto only had +11 with 360 more innings!
Only two rookies were better on a rate basis than Rutschman since Judge's historic 2017 season. Neither reached 250 plate appearances; Rutschman had 470. He's marked in Oriole orange on the top left.
His contact quality is nothing to write home about currently, with mediocre barrel rates and exit velocity. Still, his chase and contact rates are already great and will likely improve as his foundation. ATC projects him for a 129 wRC+ and 4.6 fWAR, but that assumes a regression in both offensive and defensive production while missing 30 games. With the most moderate gain in offensive ability, similar defense, and frequent time at DH, Rutschman could be worth 8.0 fWAR/650 at age 25. Incredible.
I decided to put him next to Realmuto because I think they're currently so similar in overall ability. Rutschman is a touch less proven, so I dropped him beneath Realmuto, but realistically they're about the same in my eyes. I put him under Julio because I buy into his offense more than Rutschman currently - he's further along in that department. It's like picking a favorite child, and I love both equally! Except I put Julio above him. Whatever.
23. Manny Machado, 30, 3B - San Diego Padres
I mentioned earlier that all players will naturally undulate in their performance during the year. Machado has the unique talent of perfectly alternating his level of performance back and forth between seasons. In even-numbered years, he's put up a solid 3.77 fWAR/650 PA, and in odd-numbered years, a staggering 6.23. Typically, I find these types of analyses lacking because a coincidence like this would be bound to happen to someone, even if it was just a random chance, just like injuries. If one takes it from the lens of "he's an inconsistent player" rather than "take the under everywhere in 2023 and take the over in 2024, etc.," this type of conclusion is much more reasonable. In short: make sure that a player's career year, in this case, Machado, came off a real adjustment rather than just chance.
After my deep and objective investigation, I am cautious of Machado for 2023. He had a career-high .337 BABIP (career average of .291) and a career-high in baserunning value of 3 runs in 2022, despite speed in the bottom 30% of the league. The BABIP wasn't off of improved quality of contact, either: he outperformed his xWOBA by .044, only finishing with a .338 as opposed to his .382 wOBA, while also carrying a career-high K rate as well. Hitters can over perform these measures with heavy amounts of pull, such as a hitter coming up shortly, but Machado’s 41.2% pull rate is just 60th amongst 130 qualified hitters - dead average. So many career-highs in “luck” statistics and career-low in “skill” statistics paint a worrying picture for a guy who just got paid $350 million for 11 years. I’m sure you can guess my thoughts on that deal.
Maybe it'll be only 4 WAR for him next year after all.
Machado's career is full of ups and downs. How much can one buy into his best-ever year?
24. Sandy Alcantara, 27, SP - Miami Marlins
I'm sure some of you believe that I'm a Sandy Alcantara hater on this ranking, but that couldn't be further from the truth. I've been a fan of his since the 2021 preseason and only doubled down after his great 2nd half. I viewed him as more of a fantasy asset than a real-life one at the time because of the value of a consistent volume starter in fantasy, and I still do to an extent, but I need to give him his deserved props in the real world.
I was a fan of his, despite pretty mediocre peripherals in 2020, because of his elite sinker. He averages 97.5 mph on the pitch with elite break into RHB and the rare capability in the modern-day game to throw it on pitch 120 as well as he did on pitch 1. He tunnels the sinker with his 92 mph changeup that has a very similar profile, albeit with more vertical break, inducing swings over it. He also throws a 4-seam fastball to give his sinker another different look at the same speed and a slider that runs around 90 mph.
Two more things make Sandy great: His overall repertoire and his changeup. Most of his repertoire's success comes from the tunneling and the velocity, allowing him to throw all four of his pitches between 22-28% of the time - a balance I've never seen before - and have dominant success with his primary pitch: the changeup. A .188 xWOBA on someone's most used pitch is incredible and proves it should be used more by him, especially against RHB. He splits his repertoire down the middle: using sinker/slider ⅔ of the time vs. RHB and changeup/4-seam vs. LHB, but his changeup remains his best-performing pitch against righties anyway. He probably should throw it more.
The reason I have less optimism for Sandy than others is that he's virtually identical to his 2021 self. While his changeup got significantly better, in the form of a 12% boost in groundball rate, his fastball and slider both regressed, and there's no indication that any of it is sustainable. His changeup was getting below the zone more for whiffs and was thrown 5% more, but I find it hard to believe those changes alone deserved to cut his ERA by an entire run, or even half a run, frankly. His slider is solid, and his fastball is a bridge pitch for his changeup and sinker, but the changeup and sinker combo with those two pitches in support doesn't seem this dominant. He also lost his best infield defender by far, Miguel Rojas, and the shift rules are now put into place. I have him as the 7th best starter (Ohtani included in that top 8), and ATC, voted the best projection system four years in a row, pegs him 9th. Seems fair enough.
Sandy Alcantara's repertoire is elite in every respect. Can he keep the command in check?
25. Jose Altuve, 32, 2B - Houston Astros
Altuve returned to MVP form in 2022, posting a 164 wRC+ and 6.6 fWAR in just 141 games.
I wouldn't get too excited, though; he still feasts almost solely on fastballs, and the Crawford Boxes in left field certainly aided his elite OPS of .920 with his pull-heavy approach (2nd in baseball behind Daulton Varsho). He's also not getting any faster; his sprint speed was the lowest of any season of his career, and his defense was worse than any other full year since 2017.
A large part of his jump in offensive production was a career-high 10.9% BB rate with a career-low swing rate outside the zone, but I'm not sure that'll stick as he ages. His average EV was in just the 6th percentile, but his swing is made for Minute Maid Park. As long as he remains an Astro, he’ll be great.
P.S. It’s very unfortunate that he’ll miss significant time after getting hit on the hand by Daniel Bard. Here’s hoping the extended absence doesn’t cost him his rhythm like it did with Harper last year.
Abridged List
Shohei Ohtani
Mike Trout
Aaron Judge
Mookie Betts
Jose Ramirez
Juan Soto
Jacob deGrom
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Corbin Burnes
Bryce Harper
Nolan Arenado
Freddie Freeman
Yordan Alvarez
Gerrit Cole
Shane McClanahan
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Julio Rodriguez
Paul Goldschmidt
Kyle Tucker
Trea Turner
J.T. Realmuto
Adley Rutschman
Manny Machado
Sandy Alcantara
Jose Altuve
Conclusion
Thanks for reading at least part of this long ranking. Hopefully all of it! When I started writing articles, the top 50 was something I really wanted to do after being inspired by the Foolish 50, the HLTV Top 20 for CSGO, and MLB Network’s Top 100.
Part 2 is coming in the next week or two, hopefully before Opening Day. It takes a while to write all this stuff, and I want to make sure everything I say is accurate. I’m looking forward to getting it out there.