Introduction
For the first time, I opted to do content related to the Trade Deadline. While it was meant to be more of a prediction article, it turned out to be just as much a “review of recent trades” article, which I think is a direction that gives me a little more to chew on. I don’t plan to review today’s trades in a future article, but you never know.
I hope you enjoy!
Players That Have Been Traded:
BOS trades SP Connelly Early to WAS for 3B Curtis Mead
I’ve likened Early to a budget McLean - a similarly deep mix, but without the faith in the secondaries to utilize them as frequently; interesting shapes, but without the same capacity for spin, less so, and without the high-end offerings (like McLean’s curve) that can create consistently great performances at their best. It’s a few too many 4-seams for my tastes, and not enough of the other stuff. His last start against the Nationals felt like the Kitchen Sink approach that’s most likely to bring great results: 20% sinkers, changeups, and 4-seams with 15% sweepers and gyro sliders. The lion’s share of the sweepers will come against LHB, where it’s dominated, and it’ll be primarily RHB for the changeups and gyros. But I think there’s a lot to like with Early here as a future top-30 starter with minimal adjustment.
Mead has broken out in the way many have these days: be more passive. His in-zone swing rate is down 10%, his chase down nearly 3%, and so his walk rate has doubled with similar quality of contact. He’s also turned his pull rate up to 11, now 47% and 13% better than last season. For a Red Sox ballpark that rewards such an approach, and a front office that therefore seeks it out, Mead makes a ton of sense. I’m not sure how long such prodigious walk rates can hold, and he is a poor third baseman (-2 DRS, -7 FRV in 200 innings). But it makes sense for the Red Sox to pursue Mead now with everything operating in an upward trajectory, even if I think Early is the slightly more valuable asset at the moment.
ATL receives Lane Thomas and SP Bailey Falter from KC for SP Lucas Braun and SP Carter Holton
When writing this article, I had Lane Thomas going to the Braves. He fits them perfectly: he crushes LHP, plays a competent corner outfield, and unlocks utility man Mauricio Dubon to cover a middle infield role. I’m sorry, Jim Jarvis, you can’t play every day with your current abilities.
The other 3 players are footnotes: Falter is a salary dump, Braun is a depth SP that may one day be average in MLB, and Holton is a 2024 2nd round pick that just underwent Tommy John and missed all of 2025.
DET trades SP Tarik Skubal to LAD for OF Zyhir Hope, SP River Ryan, and SP Brady Smith
The big one. I don’t want to say too much about Skubal; he’s still great with his improved 4-seamer, and he easily justifies this package. But here are my thoughts on the other players.
Zyhir Hope - Once a top-10 prospect by several sources, Hope has fallen towards top-30 status after struggling to keep his contact rates in check. The speed is real (30+ SB are a possibility) and the power is very real. I think his future teammate Riley Greene is a good comparison, but with much better speed and perhaps slightly worse defense in the corner. If the Tigers believe Hope can manage this 30+ HR power without a 30% K rate, I think it makes sense to target him.
River Ryan - If you only read about Ryan online, you’d think the Tigers were paid off to take River Ryan as their desired “controllable starting pitcher” instead of Emmet Sheehan. Of course, the critiques that people offer Ryan online fall into two camps: that he’s old (he’s about to turn 28)/not a real prospect, and that he’s oft hurt. His age to me is almost irrelevant - I suppose there’s risk of him regressing before he exits team control, but he’d have to regress quite a bit before he gets to Sheehan’s level. Similar concerns got me Riley O’Brien, a 30-year-old rookie, on the cheap in last year’s sim. The latter is why I suspected the Tigers would opt for Sheehan, but assuming sufficient medical clearance, there is zero chance I’d take Sheehan over Ryan. I’m saying this as someone who traded for him coming off Tommy John surgery before 2025; River Ryan is a pitcher with an extremely serious arsenal. You’ll note that neither criticism has anything to do with his actual skillset, which seems pretty relevant when talking about baseball players. Below, I’ll focus on that.
As a player, he is extremely similar stylistically to Troy Melton. Ryan offers very strong fastball variations with a really strong slider, and a capable curveball and changeup to round out the mix vs LHP. His pitch metrics are solid as they are, but they’ll only improve when he exits the high-altitude PCL to reside in more normal-functioning ballparks, which will only make his cutter and 4-seam even more threatening. With such a wide mix, there are plenty of avenues for the Tigers to tinker: his slider could go for more width to offer a better tunnel with the 4-seam (currently 10 inches), or the changeup can be scrapped entirely for an offspeed option that is less superfluous with his sinker (maybe even a low run splitter, given he can supinate pretty well?). Either way, the Tigers are leaning into an archetype that works in the modern game, a type of arsenal that they’ve optimized well with their best remaining starter on the roster, and prioritizing a player with 6 years of control left. Therefore, I think the injury risk is well worth it.
River Ryan and Troy Melton have tons of similarities. Their 4-seam, cutter, and offspeed options are nearly identical, and their arm angles are even within 1° of one another! The main distinction is River Ryan’s ability to find top-end velocity, which implies he could be even better. The values in each cell first represent the velocity, followed by the IVB/HB” [ProspectSavant and PitcherList]
Brady Smith - I had scarcely heard of him before the trade, so I can’t comment too much on him. I often turn to Tim Kanak in these situations, who did a wonderful tweet about him a month ago. To paraphrase: he works from a high arm slot with a deep, mature arsenal for a 21-year-old. He missed all of 2024 with Tommy John, and only covered 21 innings in 2025, but that means there’s room for expansion in his arsenal yet. A sinker would be an obvious addition to his 5-pitch mix, and his 4-seam and changeup were singled out for praise in that Kanak tweet and MLB Pipeline. I think the Tigers see an opportunity to level him up over the next several years to be their next deep-mixed, right-handed workhorse, which is why they targeted him specifically.
Relative to the Phillies’ rumored offer: It’s rumored that the Phillies offered Gage Wood, Justin Crawford, and Jonathan Bowlan. How does that compare to the Dodgers’ final offer?’
Gage Wood is a good prospect, but an arsenal that’s only 17 inches wide without any crazy outlier characteristics (Burns with crazy command, Glasnow with 7.5 ft of extension) makes him an outlier success story if he ends up as a top-end SP. His extension is <7 feet, and his walk rate is 7% in Double-A. If you’re especially concerned about Ryan’s injuries, maybe they’re equivalent.
Justin Crawford is a good defensive specialist, but his lack of pull, flyballs, or raw power makes his use cases very slim. Again, it’s not the sort of player you look for in the modern game, especially when Max Clark is already roaming center field for you.
Jonathan Bowlan is a good RP, but he’s the last valuable asset in the package, so he doesn’t come close to making up the gap in the rest of the package.
In short: Hope > Crawford, Ryan >= Wood, Smith < Bowlan. The preference for the Dodgers’ offer by the Tigers, especially with how they seem to view pitchers, is very logical.
Overall, I think the Tigers did quite well. If I were going to improve the return, it would be trying to convert Hope + Smith into Eduardo Quintero, who I’ve been a fan of for a while. But the package is certainly within the margin of error of what you’d expect from all the rumors and projections, and it’s up to their player development crew to make it worthwhile now.
Rays acquire SP Freddy Peralta for SP Garry Gill Hill, OF Aidan Smith, and SS Emilien Pitre
The story to tell yourself when acquiring Peralta is easy: revert everything he does back to 2025. His changeup has continued to push itself towards low vert, high run shapes in 2026, and it’s cost him a ton of whiff. It’s far more problematic against RHB, getting just half the number of whiffs it used to (then 40%, now 20%) on consistent 15+% usage. Additionally, he’s moved towards a more cutterish shape by opting for less vertical and horizontal on his slider, and I find it an unnecessary adjustment. It was a nice offering for RHB, but not only is the shape now worse against RHB objectively, but it’s frequently been poorly executed to compound the misery. The exception to the “mass undo” should be his new sweeper, which poses 3 inches of vert and 11 inches of horizontal, and is used 10% of the time vs. RHBs. That’s a quality addition that has helped dull the same-side matchup pain.
Even if doing a lot of “Ctrl+Z” doesn’t provide a 19 K-BB% and mid-to-low 3 ERA, it’s a whole lot better than his current level. If my assessment is accurate, Peralta will be capable within a couple of starts, which is well worth the package they’re sending back. Emilien Pitre is the most interesting of the three, posting 30 walks and just 17 strikeouts in 37 Double-A games, but a lack of power, even when close to the average age of the level, makes his future projections underwhelming.
Cubs acquire SP Kevin Gausman for OF Brett Bateman and SS Ty Southisene
Gausman’s had a down year to this point, thanks to the combination of his 4-seamer once again giving up hard contact frequently, and his splitter not being in its best shape, but a Cubs team that currently relies on Javier Assad, David Peterson, and Colin Rea to get a majority of its outs can use one more inning-eating option. He’s on pace for 175 innings despite the struggles, and his binary attack can make his play improve as quickly as it deteriorates. It’s not the sort of pitcher you acquire if you’re serious about contending for the World Series, but it could get the Cubs into the NLDS with some good Wild Card Series fortune.
In return, the Blue Jays get two well-disciplined minor leaguers that don’t rate highly in Toronto’s system (by Pipeline, 20th and outside the top 30, respectively). Carry on.
Yankees acquire 1B Luis Garcia Jr. for RP Yovanny Cruz, SP Jack Cebert, RP Jake Bird, and RP Ben Grable
I did not anticipate Luis Garcia to get moved at the deadline, but given the return was 4 pitchers, 3 of which are relievers, it’s clear what the Nationals were aiming to solve through the transaction. Garcia is a fantastic platoon first base option, mauling RHP to the sweet tune of a .394 pull-adjusted xWOBA, and his hiked pull rate should allow him to play just as well, if not better, in the Stadium’s favorable dimensions. One has to wonder what this implies about Giancarlo Stanton’s status; one can’t run him, Rice, and Garcia against RHP unless Rice moves to catcher, which they insist is not part of the plan. Garcia does run an incredibly high chase rate, but his great contact rate and EVs keep his batted balls very productive.
In return, the Nationals get three notable names in return. The first is Yovanny Cruz, who has pitched very well in Triple-A and was great in the majors when briefly called upon. He rocks an effective 91 mph gyro slider nearly half the time, but most interesting to me is a 4-seam/splitter duo that makes up the remaining 52% of his usage. He pronates his 4-seam incredibly well at 99 mph (12.5 inches of run), yet finds get cut on his 90 mph splitter (6.5 inches). Perhaps it’s in part a small sample; he’s only thrown the splitter a couple dozen times overall, but that’s an incredibly interesting tunnel to build off of. If it’s just the 4-seam and gyro, that’s still a quality reliever, but nothing exceptional. Since the Yankees have kept Cruz in Triple-A almost the entire year, one has to imagine they’re in the more pessimistic camp of his long-term viability as more than a two-pitch pitcher.
The Nationals also received Jack Cebert, who I knew little about prior to the trade. I was able to dig up data from a Spring Training start, and there are things to like. He supinates well, and packs a crazy 79 mph lift sweeper that would be amongst the league’s best in vertical. It was a Spring Training start, but the velocities are roughly accurate, and he’s clearly on the bottom end of what will be viable at the MLB level. His fastball doesn’t get exceptional cut or flatness, and so I imagine the Nationals envision pushing his velocity to some extent.
Jack Cebert’s pitch metrics from a March 21st Spring Training start. Data from this tweet, using a graphic from @TJStats]
Ben Grable is the last significant piece, a 24-year-old currently in Double-A. He has a fairly high arm angle with crazy fastball vertical, and correspondingly, great vertical separation with his slider and curve. Grable feels like a much better find than Cebert long-term, despite being an RP - there’s ample room for a cutter between a 96 mph FB with a shape of ~ 20/5 and an 85 mph SL with a shape of 2/-8, which would help relieve his 4-seamer from its current 75% usage (Data from this tweet by Lance Brozdowski). It may be a case of adding the cutter and quickly promoting him to help out the MLB squad.
The Nationals also received Jake Bird, who seems like bullpen filler. A sinker/sweeper guy with poor execution across several MLB seasons
Overall, I think the Nationals did very well. They managed to offload a player that was likely superfluous in their setup for next season to improve a flawed bullpen for the long-term, and they have ample ways to fill his role in the order. Abimelec Ortiz is ripping up Rochester in Triple-A as a fellow strong-side 1B, and giving Wood and Abrams as much DH time as possible is in their pitchers’ best interests. The Yankees’ side of things makes a little less sense, but they’re logical pieces to concede and a strong-side platoon 1B/DH isn’t something you acquire without very concrete reasoning. Most likely, that would be high confidence that Stanton will miss the majority of what remains in this year.
Players That May Still Be Traded:
Hunter Goodman (Prediction: Red Sox, Trade Odds: 20%)
Goodman’s power is overwhelming. The combination of a 75.5 mph bat speed and a 30% pulled flyball rate makes 30 HR in under 400 PA entirely justified. He can kick it against both RHP and LHP, and he doesn’t even seem to benefit that much from Coors Field. Defensively, he’s capable behind the dish.
There are some problems, though. First, the whiff is absolutely through the roof. Swinging at 41% of pitches out of the zone is ludicrous when one offers at just 72% of those in the zone. The contact rates are expectedly low for his style, but he also plays half his games at Coors Field. While he certainly doesn’t need Denver’s elevation to produce, it certainly helps certain pitches - fastballs, in particular - play down. Thinner air means less vertical movement, so Goodman’s K rate should be significantly depressed. In 2026, he’s been slightly better on the road in terms of results, and about the same in strikeouts, but in 2025, there was a massive 6% gap. One doesn’t have to squint too hard to imagine a 35% strikeout rate on a team other than the Rockies, given he currently runs one over 32%.
It should be emphasized, however, that his swing-and-miss is improving: his rolling K% over 100 PA is generally around 30%, and only once has it peaked near 35. His whiff rate similarly hovers around 30%. But it all feels very flimsy - no matter how good he is, if this stat goes down, he goes under. I like to find resilient players, players who could regress in many different ways and still be nearly at their best, and Goodman is not that. If his whiff rate tanks, he will be the new Mike Zunino without the elite defense.
One has to compare the assessment to the price, and it will of course be steep. If teams are worried about the above, he will probably just stay in Denver, as they are in no rush to move him. The Yankees have gotten limited press, but his approach doesn’t really fit at the Stadium, where the left-center gap feels like it’s miles away. For a ballpark like Fenway, his impact would be titanic, but could the Red Sox justify sending Anthony Eyanson and much more to secure him? The Pirates also need to find a resolution to the Henry Davis/Endy Rodriguez tandem, which offers little excitement. I assess that he stays put for another year, until his price drops to a more reasonable level.
Adley Rutschman (Prediction: Pirates, Trade Odds: 55%)
I doubt the Orioles will deal Rutschman with 1.5 years left, but with Basallo looking MLB-caliber, there is a ready-made catcher to replace him. Rutschman isn’t at his peak 2023 level, where he possessed better swing decisions on similar power and defense, but he’s a great two-way catcher that can switch-hit effectively all the same. I think he’s a great fit for the Yankees, but since intra-divisional trades are unlikely to occur, the Pirates are my top option. Maybe the Orioles would lean towards pitching in their demands, but I think they’d take any high-quality assets they can get. If the Pirates really want to take a swing at the World Series next year, rising top prospect Murf Gray may even be on the table. Seth Hernandez and Edward Florentino are not.
Ryan Jeffers (Prediction: Yankees, Trade Odds: 85%)
The surface stats look great, but it’s all from a jump in contact rate both in and out of zone by 5+%. That’s not going to stick around. 2024-2025 Jeffers is still quality; a capable everyday starter and quality option vs LHP specifically with an extremely patient approach, but he’s not a substitute for the Goodmans and Rutschmans of the world. I’d expect him to go for little compensation with so many high-quality catchers on the market. If I had to pick a team, I’d say the Yankees - they need a right-handed option, and specifically one at catcher. No more Ali Sanchez, please. The Rays also make sense with how many LHB they currently field on a daily basis.
Mickey Moniak (Prediction: Phillies, Trade Odds: 70%)
Football may not have come home, but I think Mickey Moniak will. Originally drafted first overall by the Phillies, then traded to the Angels, before being grabbed out of free agency by the Angels, Moniak has carved out a strong righty-mashing role with the Rockies. His pull-adjusted xWOBA is a stellar .375, a passable defender when not playing RF at Coors Field, and a positive baserunner as well. With 1.5 years of control left, it’s not even a rental.
Why the Phillies then? First, the Phillies desperately need an outfielder. Gabriel Rincones Jr. couldn’t hack it in Triple-A and is posting a dreadful .218 xWOBA in the majors with few standout qualities in 84 PA. It’s out of necessity, though - with Adolis Garcia and Johan Rojas out, someone has fill in. Neither had distinguished themselves when they played, so it’s not like axing one of them from an everyday role will be an occassion for mourning. Moniak gives another quality left-handed option (Rojas or Garcia could retain RF vs. LHP), is sheltered defensively by Crawford in CF, and his pull-oriented style is perfect for Citizens Bank. It’s reminiscent of when the Phillies grabbed Brandon Marsh, but with even more thump on offer.
Luis Arraez (Prediction: Rangers, Trade Odds: 95%)
There are all sorts of suitors for a neutral defensive second baseman who can post 110 wRC+ seasons on the regular. Don’t get tricked by FRV, which loves him - DRS grades him out as a slight negative. Everyone loves him going to the Rays, but my prediction will be the Rangers, who employ Nicky Lopez as their second baseman at the moment. Even with overperformance, he only is due for a prorated 2 fWAR.
Mason Miller (Prediction: Mariners, Trade Odds: 10%)
It’s straight out of a comedy skit, isn’t it? A year after trading top prospect Leo de Vries and several other prospects for Miller and JP Sears, the Padres are now looking to flip him to either “retool” or dump Xander Bogaerts’ historically terrible contract. Off the jump, I find the latter unlikely to come to pass: with future financial rules up in the air, nobody is going to take on a terrible contract until 2033, even if significantly retained. If a significant retainment is required, what’s the point of the Padres even adding Mason Miller? They’d still be liable for a ton of money.
I also have seen people suggest that Miller is even more valuable now than last year. While his slider and 4-seam shape have improved, it’s not enough to overcome a full year of service time lost. That means the Padres will likely only be offered one elite prospect, along with MLB-level SP to fill their barren rotation, but that’s way out of line with the belief that “every prospect in [a] interested organization’s system needs to be in play for the interest to be taken seriously.” (from MLBTradeRumors). That makes the odds of a trade very low - my read is that he’s commanding at least twice the going rate for the sort of asset Miller is.
Nonetheless, I’ll try to figure out potential landing spots The Nationals’ disastrous back-of-the-bullpen situation could incentivize them to give it a particularly good go, even after the Luis Garcia trade, with guys like Travis Sykora, Devin Fitz-Gerald and Seaver King at the top of the list of names that they’d be willing to send back. They wouldn’t be able to offer any MLB-level SP, however, which makes the inclusion of Eli Willits feel like a must, and therefore, a dead end. I think their divisional rivals, the Braves, are another clear landing spot with Iglesias aging out, although they are a tougher fit asset-wise. Cam Caminiti or Eric Hartman would probably be part of the return, with Fuentes or Ritchie functioning as the MLB SP to include as well. The Yankees have been discussed, and I imagine that’d require Will Warren and several of their top prospects (Lombard, Lagrange) to get any sort of conversation going.
But my top landing spot is the Mariners. Emerson Hancock and George Kirby are serious starting pitchers that would allow them to keep top prospects Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson off the table without totally offending AJ Preller. They also can offer numerous position player prospects - I’d look seriously at Jonny Farmelo and Michael Arroyo - to sweeten the deal.
Overall, I think the hauls the Padres offer won’t be tempting enough. The only reason I am even considering that Miller will get moved is how thin the top-end RP market is at the moment, especially with Aroldis Chapman taken off the table admist the Red Sox’s recent success.
Dustin May (Prediction: Braves, Trade Odds: 80%)
Is Dustin May the most underrated pitcher in baseball? Since late May, he’s posted a strong 28% K rate and 8% walk rate across 55 innings, and despite 2 consecutive disastrous starts vs. the Royals and Braves, and a distasteful one against the Diamondbacks, he has a 3.76 ERA in that span. His command has levelled up - a near 66% strike rate after just 64% in the two months before, and a major level up in swinging strikes (by 2%) and called strikes (by 3%) make it appear sustainable. Funnily enough, there’s been limited changes in his actual arsenal. There’s minor usage tweaks, but I couldn’t find anything substantial to note. He’s just executing better with his great, deep arsenal.
May’s great ability to spin the ball allows him to diverge significantly from league norms, even when pushing the velocity of all of his pitches [Chart from dtwbaseball.com]
My landing spot for him is those aforementioned Braves. Their second-best SP at the moment is Grant Holmes, and despite AJ Smith-Shawver’s recent return and Spencer Schwellenbach’s likely return before the playoffs, there is still a clear SP3 opportunity for May in the Braves’ playoff rotation, if not SP4. Whoever gets May will be ecstatic with his output; he’s the real deal.
Robbie Ray (Prediction: Padres, Trade Odds: 95%)
Ray is a touch washed, despite what his great 3.08 ERA may indicate, having lost 2 inches of vert from his 4-seamer at its peak and strangely giving his sinker undue respect in his arsenal, but it all feels fixable. Originally, I had the Rays as the team to land him, with their love of arms with great raw IVB, but Freddy Peralta likely takes them out of that sweepstakes. The Padres desperately need live, capable arms if they’re pushing for the playoffs, so I’ll put him there instead.
Trevor Rogers (Prediction: Guardians, Trade Odds: 85%)
Like Freddy Peralta, it’s too hard to say where he goes. He’s been a new man since the start of June, garnering strikes at 70+% clips on all of his pitches other than the sweeper, and eliciting tons of weak contact. He’s the sort of player I really struggle to understand, so it’s not immediately clear to me what he’s worth, but at the very least he’s a 3.8 ERA inning-eater. I’ll try the Guardians as the landing spot, with their clear affinity for LHP with great changeups, and Rogers’ relatively low trade value as a rental, but the Rangers could also use a Cal Quantrill replacement, and the Nationals (if they seek to go for it) could use replacements for half of their rotation.
Conclusion
That’s it. Let’s hope for interesting trades in the remaining 9 hours before the deadline!
Sources
BaseballReference
FanGraphs
BaseballSavant
PitcherList
Robert Orr’s App
ProspectSavant
Deserve-to-Win
MLBPipeline
MLBTradeRumors
@TJStats on Twitter
@LanceBroz on Twitter
@fantasyaceball on Twitter