Some Brief Thoughts on Christian Scott

The Mets found some timely reinforcements with Christian Scott. Can he find consistent success immediately?

Introduction

After a serious amount of minor-league hype, Christian Scott lived up to expectations in his maiden MLB start, recovering after 3 hits and a run in the first to finish with 6 hits, 1 ER, and 18 whiffs across 6 innings. Scott’s strategy is to pound the zone, come what may, lending himself to high HR totals and a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. While that has been a successful approach for guys like Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, it requires stuff that can overpower opponents consistently with a deep repertoire to keep opponents from guessing , or at the very least, make it irrelevant. Here’s a breakdown of Scott’s repertoire - which includes a fastball, sweeper, slider, and splitter - to see if he can mirror that success.

Fastball

Scott’s fastball sits 95 on 44% usage, but plays up from above-average extension (he’s 6’ 4”) and a low release point, creating an elite vertical approach angle (VAA). He uses it at the top of the zone relentlessly, maximizing the effect of the great VAA, and locates it well. This creates some home run problems from the inevitable flyballs, but creates tons of swings and misses in the process.

 Its 11 inches of horizontal break makes it have a similar shape to other high VAA fastballs like Joe Ryan’s, Aaron Nola’s, and Luis Castillo’s, which is a good omen. But all of those pitchers also had much deeper arsenals than Scott, and in Ryan’s case, struggled with a similar profile prior to this season. I don't think Scott’s fastball is necessarily good enough to operate alone, which may be what’s required against lefties. In his debut? 63% usage against them (12 pitches), and a serious regression in our admittedly small sample of metrics. 

Slider

He has a little sweeping slider like everyone seems to nowadays, averaging 87.5 mph with 2.5 inches of horizontal break. The hope is that it will set up his sweeper for success, which makes it critical for performance against RHB. The problem is that it will have to have some success against LHB, because the fastball and splitter can’t survive against them alone. With its low amount of horizontal break, it should be capable of 15-20% usage, but will few mistakes in location. Again, guess whose slider is similar? Fellow VAA merchants Bryce Miller and Joe Ryan. Interesting.

Sweeper

Scott’s sweeper is also located well, always landing glove-side on the outer third or off the plate to right-handed hitters. It has a whopping 27 inches of horizontal break separation from the fastball, but the slider is there to try to bridge them to some extent. Its velocity averages 83.5, which is on the harder side, but it still gets 16 inches of horizontal break. It has a propensity to be hit hard with that heavy amount of break, even in the minors, but the rewards seem to generally outweigh the risks. 

Splitter

His splitter is just here. It sits at 86.5, which makes it trip over the sweeper and slider in speed ranges, and doesn’t perform well at all. In Triple-A, on 14% usage, it got punished in the zone without drawing many swings and misses. Its CSW was a dismal 18%, and that’s despite likely exclusive usage against lefties. I feel a 2024 Bryce Miller situation here: he has a splitter to beat lefties, but can he rely on it in a crucial moment? 

Conclusion

I was a bit lower on Scott than others upon his promotion, for two reasons that I’ve generally covered here. First, he’s got no real way to get lefties out, and second, his secondaries seem thrown together without a really clear plan of attack. His three secondaries are only separated by 4 mph, which feels like something that’ll be corrected in the offseason, and if he doesn’t have his fastball working on a given day, it’s lights out. His great strikeout and walk ratios, along with arsenal (fastball/sweeper/slider/splitter), make 2023 Joe Ryan a clear comparison, but he lacks the plus-plus fastball of that past Ryan and the average to above-average splitter. That makes him more akin to B. Miller - lots of fastballs that are good, but not enough to get over the line against a capable offense. 

My final evaluation is this: if he can maintain great fastball command, I envision an ERA below 4. Otherwise, he’ll likely end up something like 2023 Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 4.19 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, 29% K%, and 5% BB%), albeit without the elite strikeout rate. There will be some glorious days like recently against Tampa Bay, and some ugly ones against capable heavy left-handed lineups. To ensure less of the latter, he’ll have to learn on the job quickly.

Sources

PitcherList

Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard

Image of Scott comes from mlb.com