Taking Over the Twins

I adopt the role of general manager for the Minnesota Twins in the r/baseball offseason simulation after a disappointing 2024. Can I improve the roster amidst other GMs attempting the same?

Introduction

The baseball subreddit runs an annual simulation of the offseason where users take the roles of GMs, player agents, and commissioners. Think of it as a fantasy baseball league, except you have to consider every aspect of the game - salaries, player defense, utility, etc. - while also being constrained by the team’s actual situation. I got the opportunity to experience the simulation for the first time this year as general manager of the Minnesota Twins, and I seized it. Below, I’ll explain my overall strategy, as well as the specific moves I made in characteristic detail.

It should be emphasized that while it’s called a simulation, it’s more of an OOTP public league than a dry run of the offseason. With no ramifications, people are going to be far more aggressive for the players they want, and in my experience, any player that wasn’t considered “untouchable” by that GM was able to be traded for. Paired with no actual ramifications for failure, people went for guys they liked or “maximum value,” leading to some interesting trades and underwhelming free-agent deals. But don't let that ruin the fun; there’s almost nowhere else on the internet where you could find a well-coordinated alternate reality of an MLB offseason with many GMs that are capable enough to make interesting, (somewhat) realistic moves.

My Strategy

The Twins don't need an overhaul despite their underwhelming 2024 finish. The rotation is already great, the bullpen is elite, and the offense is good against RHP with tons of left-handed hitting specialists like Larnach and Wallner. The main issues are hitters who can handle LHP, particularly in the outfield, outfield defense, and left-handed relievers. While the Twins did post the same wRC+ against LHP as RHP, platoon masher Carlos Santana's deal is expiring and absurdly good play by Correa and Buxton against them is unlikely to stick. I hope to platoon Wallner and Larnach thoroughly with quality defensive right-handed options. The reasoning for a defensive focus is two-fold. First, they are losing Max Kepler, by far their best defender, and Byron Buxton, a traditionally good CF, is a safer bet as a DH than an outfielder at this point. Second, the Twins’ pitching staff concedes tons of flyballs. Across all MLB teams, they were 5th in flyball rate in 2024 (3rd amongst starters), making it an increased priority compared to other teams. Lastly, last-handed relievers. Kody Funderbunk is not great, and he’s the best they’ve got. Enough said.

With plenty of moves in mind and just under $20 million to start with, there was no way I was going to be able to enter a bidding war for a star in free agency. On the trade market, I’m a prospect hugger at heart, which meant that Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins were completely off limits, but given what the prices for the top players like Rooker and Crochet ended up being, my absence from serious negotiations for them was inevitable. I focused mainly on the trade market to make my moves, because a) most players are in organizations, rather than free agency, and b) the trade market is inherently rational, while free agency is not. While FA didn’t turn out that way in the sim, I had no real reason to expect otherwise after researching results from past years. Shohei Ohtani's 13-year/$666 million with no deferments was a deal with the devil (and the Angels) a year ago, for example.

My MLB Moves

For trades, rankings from MLB Pipeline for each player in the team’s system are given in brackets, to give you a general idea of how good they are. Unless you’re a fan of a team involved, you’re unlikely to have heard about any of them.

Richard Lovelady for Brock Stewart (with TB)

I desperately needed cheap left-handed relievers and Lovelady is both a) cheap and b) left-handed. I think his sinker could be worked in more to great effect; it consistently tops the charts in groundball rate amongst all pitches, placing at or above 75%, off of more than 7 feet in extension from a unique slot. I gave up Brock Stewart, who is a “high upside” reliever with a great fastball, which gives off Louie Varland vibes. I put high upside in quotations because he’s 33, and has thrown 149 innings in his nine-year MLB career, meaning the Rays will attempt to beat the odds. That’s fitting for their organizational image, I suppose.

Jonny deLuca for Adrian Bohorquez[29], Carson McCusker[UR] (with TB)

The stock on deLuca has fallen with a poor MLB debut, but the man can ball. He uses his top-of-the-line speed to be a great defender and baserunner, and his offense can one day be league-average. He shows solid plate discipline and can get the ball in the air on the pull side, but he just can’t quite get much, or frankly any, power behind it. If your expectation is “fourth outfielder,” it’s a great price. In exchange, I sent Bohorquez, a young, promising SP from the complex league, and Carson McCusker, who runs a 35% strikeout rate in AAA at age 26, despite just 22 HR/650 PA and a .208 ISO. If Bohorquez doesn’t become a beast, the trade will age well.

Emmet Sheehan, Hunter Feduccia[UR] for Simeon Woods-Richardson, Daider de los Santos [UR], Eduardo Beltre[23] (with LAD)

You may not be familiar with how good Emmet Sheehan is, and if you peep at his MLB numbers on BaseballReference, they do look poor. When you split them into two halves, though, the full picture comes into view. He struggled early on with command, but starting with his game against the Reds on July 29th, he posted the following through the seven starts to the end of the year: 35% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, 47% groundball rate, 20% swinging strike rate, 31% CSW, 65% strike rate, 30% ideal contract rate (ICR). Maybe ten pitchers can boast such an elite seven-start stretch across the board. You can’t “fluke” that through an easy schedule - only Tarik Skubal did a better job at min-maxing CSW and ICR during that span with as many innings, and he knows all about beating the weak schedule abuse allegations. That’s just dominance.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. It could be just a couple of great starts! Seven starts is less than a quarter of the season! You’re right. That’s why you’ll be surprised to hear that I wasn’t even aware of this elite major-league stretch until the trade was virtually finalized. His pitches alone incentivized me to make the move. A breakdown below:

His fastball has elite carry at 95 mph at the top of the zone, and while its CSW was certainly a little low at 23%, thanks to weak command, it induced tons of swings at a 35% ICR. As his secondaries come more into view, its 60% usage will decrease in favor of his slider, which sweeps well at 87 with dream tunneling and speed differential with the fastball. It should come as no surprise, then, that it runs a 22% swinging strike rate, 38% chase rate, and 44% whiff rate on 23% ICR. He should probably zone it a little more, considering its 7th percentile zone rate, but it does everything else at an elite level.

Lastly, he has his changeup, which is the biggest source of optimism for Sheehan’s repertoire. It was horribly located, ending up in the top third 20% of the time and the zone 38% of the time, allowing it to get hammered. Despite that, though, the swing and miss was completely absurd at a 49% whiff rate. Its shape is comparable to Bailey Ober’s, but it’s arguably better with one extra inch of induced drop. Ober’s generates a 96th percentile chase rate, 95th percentile swinging strike rate, 90th percentile whiff rate, and 75th percentile ICR, so if Sheehan got anywhere near those results, he will be a stud.

The rest of the trade isn’t that interesting. Simeon Woods-Richardson (SWR) is an innings eater that may be able to go under a 4 ERA with a lot of pitch mix shuffling. I didn’t really see much there. Daiber (Pipeline: UR) and Eduardo (Pipeline: 23rd) are low and high-upside Dominican league guys, respectively. Eduardo Beltre was a tough guy to give up, with great power/speed numbers in the complex league, but his hit tool and defense leave much to be desired, and he’s very raw.

Hunter Feduccia is a handy backup catcher, with great plate discipline and above-average defense from the left side, who also can serve as depth. He is above average amongst all AAA players when factoring in age, according to ProspectSavant.

Feduccia ranks in the 62nd percentile overall in AAA relative to his age, according to ProspectSavant. His percentiles for AAA above (which I believe are unadjusted for age) come from TimStats’ Twitter.

Dahian Santos[20] for Louie Varland (with TOR)

There was no space on the roster for Varland with other pitchers on their way in and no options remaining, but he looks like a career reliever if we’re being nice; his ERA in AAA was over 5 while campaigning for a major-league job with a de facto one-pitch mix. Dahian Santos has struggled with command thus far, but he has a legit slider that could make him a good bullpen weapon.

Landen Roupp for Kyle DeBarge[9], Jeremy Lee[UR] (with SF)

While researching, I found Roupp to be one of the most shocking players I have come across. He has two excellent pitches: a curveball with 18 inches of horizontal break that can do a bit of everything on 44% usage, and a horribly underused changeup that kills tons of vert (-2 inches) at 88 mph. It creates disgusting swing and miss, at or above the 90th percentile, and can easily double its 9% usage to allow him to enter the rotation as the 5th starter.

His sinker currently is second fiddle, at 41% usage, and is the root of his recent control problems. It steals tons of called strikes and generates groundballs, but its use is at the expense of the change, which is better in almost all aspects. He also brings a promising slider project, currently at 4% usage, with a menacing 26-inch differential with his sinker. It’s possible it just needs to be canned and replaced with something more platoon-neutral, but he doesn’t need it regardless.

In exchange, I send Kyle DeBarge, a compensation round pick in the 2024 draft who looks like a nice toolsy shortstop. Jeremy Lee is a random starter who was thrown in to get the Giants to end negotiations with the Dodgers. Intra-division trading, and all that. Truth hurts.

Kyle DeBarge was decent in his 109 High-A PAs after a full college year in Louisiana (image from ProspectSavant).

Lazaro Montes[3], Michael Arroyo[12], Michael Morales[13], Cole Phillips[19], Josh Rojas, Tayler Saucedo for Jhoan Duran, Willi Castro, Nolan Santos[UR] (with SEA)

This trade was really two deals in one, so I’ll treat it as such so it’s simpler to explain. The first half is the big one: Jhoan Duran for Lazaro Montes, Michael Arroyo, and Michael Morales. Many people called about Duran, so despite having no real intent to move him originally, I decided to listen to offers. Most of the early offers were frankly uncompetitive, but things warmed up over time. The Mariners were the most competitive suitor throughout the process, so we got it done.

Montes has elite power and control of the zone for his age. His aggressiveness leads to high swing and miss, but he still struck out less than 30% of the time in A+. His prospect ranking is hurt by likely being DH-only, but one can dream of a more volatile Yordan Alvarez with the profile and large 6’3” frame. In addition, he’s had no problems facing LHP thus far, a great sign for his future platooning prospects. Arroyo has a very similar profile from the right side - power and control of the zone at the cost of swing and miss at age 19. According to ProspectLarceny, which ranks players based on offensive output relative to their age and level, Arroyo is 31st, while Montes is around 80th. He outperformed Montes at High-A, is clearly under-ranked at 11 in the Mariners’ system (BP has him 4th, for example), and is the perfect replacement in the long-term outlook for recently shipped-out Kyle DeBarge. Michael Morales is a pitcher who showed the upside of an efficient innings-eater at age 21 in A+ and AA.

Why move Duran? Well, my general philosophy is that in an era full of flamethrowers and Tommy John (TJ) surgeries, divestment from those who rely on elite velocity before surgery is worth it, while buying the dip on the other end (see: Sheehan, some Ps to come). The percentage of MLB pitchers who have gotten TJ has increased by around 1% a year for the past 10+ years, and currently sits at around 40%, which makes avoiding them nearly impossible. For instance, I don't think the teams with the two highest totals are being particularly reckless when they also were the two World Series participants.

It's worth mentioning that I have zero concern about Duran coming off a “down year” where his left-on-base rate was a putrid 61% and his SIERA was as good as ever at 2.60. Beyond my velocity thesis, he is starting to hit his Arb years, and Jax and Sands are arms that look to be just as good. In addition, I was able to acquire a suitable replacement at the same time.

Now, the second half: Willi Castro and Nolan Santos for Josh Rojas, Cole Phillips, and Tayler Saucedo. First, Saucedo was a lefty that I had my eye on for the ‘pen, and given we were already in these talks, I brought him up. Saucedo has a killer sinker to limit contact and a changeup that may be even better. The latter is capable of an above-average strike rate despite an 11th percentile in-zone rate, thanks to a 47% chase rate and 38% whiff rate. The ICR is an amazing 22% as well on 43% usage to righties. He also throws a slider and sweeper, but they are at the root of his effectiveness problems against LHB. I believe their 35% usage should be dramatically reduced to let his sinker and changeup (currently only used 1.5% of the time same-side) flourish.

Willi Castro and Josh Rojas were flipped at his request, but I see little difference between the two. Rojas is coming off a down year, but I see no regression in his typical pull-side approach. He’s a flexible defender, much like Castro, and has three years of control instead of one on a cheaper 2025 salary. Rojas’ BABIP is 40 points below his career average, so I’ll bet on that bounce back outside of T-Mobile, where hitters tend to mysteriously regress. In addition, we swap pitching prospects. The once very promising Cole Phillips, coming off two Tommy John surgeries (buy the dip), for Nolan Santos, who is praying to be a long-reliever one day in the bigs.

Clay Holmes - 2 years @ $12 million/year

I’m still confused as to how nobody beat this, but the good GM is always lucky, I suppose. I think people bought too much into the “Clay Holmes melts down every game” narrative despite a 3.14 ERA, which is quite high for his standards. I know what you’re saying, “he walked so many people, he shouldn’t have allowed that many runs.” I agree! His SIERA and xFIP were both lower than 3.14, at 2.87 and 3.01, so he arguably should have been even better. Also, he had the second-lowest walk rate of his last four seasons and had a lower walk rate in his “untenable” second half than higher-regarded reliever Tanner Scott’s whole 2024. If you give up tons of groundballs, baserunners aren’t nearly as relevant regardless.

The only reason he regressed at all was his sinker, which has gone consistently up from a 24% ICR in 2022 to 39.5% in 2024. It’s not that he’s giving up more flyballs or harder contact, in fact, both decreased on the pitch in 2024. The mistake rate is the lowest since it began being tracked and the PLV was the highest, indicating that its command was not out of line. Indeed, its strike rate was higher than in the prior two years. The only explanation I can give is poor pitch sequencing and selection, because I’m not seeing it in any of his aggregated results. Unlike Duran, who he replaces, he doesn’t need velocity to succeed. He creates obscene seam-shifted wake on the pitch, which makes it about as viable at 92 as at 97.

Courtesy of Max Bay’s Dead Zone app. The darker the color of the center of a pitch’s circle, the more unique the movement is given the release. Given half of the sinker’s orange circle is in the black, it’s pretty unique in shape - It drops six inches more than one would expect.

The crazy thing about Holmes isn’t even the sinker. It’s that he has two secondaries that make his sinker unnecessary to still be great. His slider runs 39% CSW on a 31% ICR, although I expect some hard contact regression to come. His sweeper is also used 20% of the time, and it may be better than his sinker. It differentiated itself prior to 2024 by adding 4 inches of depth, and the 67% groundball rate and 19% ICR are both staggering for its 18% swinging strike rate. Only him and Brendon Little can claim two pitches with such a good groundball rate, and Little actually has the level of command problems people claim with Holmes.

Jake Meyers for Tanner Schobel[18], Yunior Severino[25] (with HOU)

Jake Meyers is a capable CF, but I plan to weak-side platoon him in LF while promoting young Emmanuel Rodriguez to man center (Siri was the original plan, but my budget got too tight. More on that later.). In doing so, Buxton is allowed to move to a less strenuous corner outfield spot, while giving the young man who ranks 1st on ProspectLarceny some run. Meyers’ offense makes him no virtuoso, but the cost is modest. Tanner Schobel, who hit High-A well at 22 but seems to profile as a mediocre major-leaguer at best, and Yunior Severino, who was mediocre in Triple-A at 24.

Scott Effross for Billy Amick[12] (with NYY)

I just threw this out there after noticing he wasn’t listed in their bullpen with a new RP signed, and the Yankees’ GM acceded. Amick is a powerful third baseman from the SEC, but shows limited upside from high chase rates and inconsistent defense. Effross is coming off surgery (buy the dip, again), but has no reliance on velocity and has truly unicorn pitches. His changeup kills 10 inches of vert and his 90 mph sinker has 19 inches of run, with a slider that is sweepy at 79 from a submarine slot. For reference, Effross was traded for Wesneski after Hayden put up back-to-back great seasons as a starter with just half a year of extra control on Effross. I think I got a better deal for Effross now than the Yankees did in 2022, all things considered.

Dylan O’Rae[27] for Chris Paddack, $2.5 million (with MIL)

I had my eyes on a Paddack deal throughout the simulation, and I managed to finally close a deal within 48 hours of its end. There are many value starters on the market that can perform Paddack’s long relief role at a similar level at a cheaper cost, so getting any return without massive retainments is good business for a team with a limited budget. O’Rae doesn’t seem like much based on his ranking, but he has clear skills at getting on-base and swiping bags, with a 15% BB rate and 62 SB in 126 games despite limited offensive threat (1 HR). He’s kept it up in A+ and AA, implying it’s not just from exploiting poor command in the low minors, and any sort of bat-to-ball improvement will work wonders for his results.

Spencer Turnbull - 1 year @ $760k

Turnbull replaced Paddack in the bullpen with the hopes of returning to his April 2024 form. In that great month, he posted a 21% K-BB and 30% CSW, thanks to a newly added sweeper that sports atypical velocity and carry. He will need to find another pitch that can mitigate damage, but a long relief role will also be much less punishing for someone wielding a shallow arsenal than a starting one. Most importantly, he threw a no-hitter when I streamed him in fantasy baseball. Bang!

Mark Canha - 1 year @ $4 million

I realized on the last day that I had screwed up my accounting by double counting the “extras” section of my spreadsheet, which duplicated the $3.5 million to my payroll from buyouts and retained salaries. I was playing on hard mode the whole time, accidentally, and it cost me several days that would have virtually guaranteed J.D. Martinez, who went unsigned (the varying levels of dedication of GMs in the sim leaves some notable FAs on the market). Instead, I turn to Mark Canha, who posted good results against LHP (124 wRC+) on poor process (.298 pull-adjusted xWOBA from PitcherList). Perhaps Tommy Pham was a better choice, but he is no spring chicken himself. For reference, Martinez had a .408 xWOBA against LHP, and would have been great for his “intangible” ability to teach the many players with similar steep swing paths to his, such as Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, and Austin Martin. If Canha goes awry, there are plenty of options in the minors, such as the aforementioned Martin, to take his place at DH.

J.D. Martinez - 1 year @ $3.5 million

That’s awkward. The moderators gave me clemency for my error and allowed me to sign Martinez anyway, making Canha superfluous. It was technically against the rules, but they also make the rules, so I guess it’s legit? I think it’s only fair to consider Canha off the roster in exchange, while retaining his costs, which makes Martinez 1 year/$7.5 million. I am truly a lucky one, but as another wise man once said, “getting lucky is not a crime.”

Jonathan Loaisiga - 1 year @ $2.5 million, 2nd year team option at $6 million ($1 million buyout)

The $3.5 million guaranteed is perfectly in line with the $3.5 million I stumbled upon on my spreadsheet. Shocking! Loaisiga was a stretch goal with such a loaded bullpen already, but he went untouched into the final hour, and the stuff is too vile. His sinker sits 98 with 20 inches of horizontal movement on an elite approach angle, the changeup has both outlier carry and run at 90 for 40% whiff rates, and the curveball has the shape of a sweeping slider with its extremely unique characteristic of no induced drop at 87. If you’re keeping count, that's the 3rd 2024 Yankee added to my bullpen. I considered Tim Hill too!

My Minor League Moves

$200k is the minimum salary for players with MLB service time, $100k otherwise. I focused on reliever depth with upside, and starter depth with stability.

Kirby Snead (LHRP, $200k)

The Twins desperately need left-handed reliever depth, and Snead, the Prince of Pronation, has some crazy good pitches to build around. His sinker has 20 inches of break at 93 mph, his slider is effective with the above-average sweep that the Twins are generally fans of, and his changeup has insane shape with 19 inches of horizontal break and -4 inches of vert. For reference, Devin Williams has one that is 20 and -5.5, respectively. His fastball is mediocre and should be completely dropped, and he probably needs a bridge pitch to deal with the 28 inches of break differential between the sinker and slider.

Ty Blach (LHSP, $200k)

Blach is a similar tale, running a new 4-seamer 35% of the time that is simply not good. His changeup/sinker/cutter mix can bear greater responsibility in its place and his curve isn’t half bad either. At worst, he’s probably left-handed Louie Varland based on his performance before regularly pitching in the Coors thunderdome.

Andrew Bellatti (RHRP, $200k)

This was my friend’s idea and I’m frankly shocked that I missed him in my initial research. His fastball has good carry at 94, his slider has a great tunnel with it and elicits tons of swing-and-miss, and his changeup is used just 5% of the time with a staggering 18 inches of horizontal break. His weakness is dancing around the zone a bit too much, but that’s a minor concern with the strength of his arsenal.

Griffin Canning (RHSP, $300k)

A nice depth starter with a stable fastball/slider/changeup/curve mix. A 5.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2024 seems a little harsh for his arsenal, but his fastball completely cratered, losing 7 points of CSW after dropping a tick of velocity across the board. I’d expect a league-average season next year, with arsenal adjustments if his fastball continues to be bottom of the barrel.

Nick Sandlin (RHRP, $200k)

I was very surprised that he was non-tendered by the Guardians, but an xERA near 5 may have been the culprit. His fastball has a great approach angle, but gets absolutely demolished, so I’m cutting its usage down to size. He has a similarly flat sinker that can limit contact to just league-average quality, a big slider that is boom or bust, and a splitter that has elite shape with its incredible drop (27% swinging strike rate?!) .The splitter and slider are pitches that can be built around while the sinker/fastball situation gets figured out.

Paul Blackburn (RHSP, $300k)

He throws 6 pitches 10% of the time or more, and has a good sweepy slider to build around. His changeup also is effective at getting whiffs, thanks to a great tunnel with his fastball and sinker, which allows it to overperform its mediocre characteristics. He’s budget Seth Lugo, if you have the Chicago White Sox’s budget.

Cristian Pache (OF, $200k)

I half considered Pache as my CF over Rodriguez, but decided that it was a little too risky with his noodle bat. He earned its rating last year with the .217 xWOBA he posted last year in minimal time - he made the typical pitcher he faced look like Kirby Yates. The prior two years, he sat around .280, which would put him firmly in Jose Siri territory offensively. If he can get back to that spot with his defensive acumen, he would be a justifiable starter.

MJ Melendez (OF, $200k)

I’m shocked this one went through, given the resistance I got when trying to sign Ramon Laureano prior, but I’ll take it. He’s very poor defensively, but his offensive fallback can be pinned on his 6% increase in groundball rate, which is otherwise above-average. I see him as a strong-side version of Laureano, with worse defense, which makes him a fine replacement in a corner for Larnach or Wallner if necessary.

Final Outlook

If you want to know the final roster, here it is in abridged form. First, the lineups by handedness:

This graphic and others like it were made with Datawrapper

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a rookie with indistinguishable platoon splits in the minors, so I listed his projected wOBA by Steamer as his xWOBA for both sides. I’d expect a better year out of Brooks Lee with his stable approach.

Rojas and Miranda are the ones that really stick out to me here, but Rojas seems braced for a rebound with little degradation in his process and Miranda is a steady player that I couldn’t quite find a suitable replacement for. The outfield defense, which I hoped to upgrade, looks capable, especially against LHP.

Next, the pitching. Topa, Effross, and Loaisiga had negligible sample sizes in 2024, so I used their most recent season with significant innings.

I would expect butter play out of Roupp and Saucedo specifically, while Loaisiga should outperform his 2022 self if he recovers well. David Festa was a surprise with a great 3.58 SIERA when I was making the chart, adding to my overall high confidence in his progression.

Lastly, the depth in the minors. Julien is a possible promotion if Rojas struggles, as is Payton Eeles, who broke out in a major way at 24. Zebby Matthews seems a little too raw for the major-league roster, and I have a host of RP to promote if one goes down, or one is moved for the right offer at the deadline. Look at what half a year of Tanner Scott went for!

Conclusion

I think I did a fine job, and accomplished most of what I set out to do. I’ve built an incredible amount of roster depth with lots of years of control and deepened the farm concurrently. I made some mistakes in assessing the pace of the market (I did not realize how many quality RP would be available by the end, much less that JD Martinez would go completely untouched if not for the grace of the men up top). As you may have been able to notice, I think pitchers who pronate well - that is, those with strong sinkers and/or changeups are the best to target. I may make an article exploring that suspicion at some point, but Nick Pollack has recently espoused a similar point about changeups with LHP specifically. While I have a more general preference for them, there’s no doubt that many of the top LHP have an elite one (Ragans, Skubal, Snell).

The link to my spreadsheet is here if you want the complete outlook. Coming up soon is the recap of my, and all the other 2024 top 50 lists. See you then!

Sources

PitcherList

ProspectSavant/TimStats’ MiLB Savant pages

BaseballSavant

ProspectLarceny

MLBPipeline

Max Bay’s Dead Zone App

JacobE and Antoniou’s “hitter scorecard”

Datawrapper