Who's on First

A breakdown of five standout first basemen in the first month.

Introduction

This year has begun with many offensive breakouts which, strangely, come courtesy of the first base position. Offensive numbers generally stabilize quicker than defensive ones, so looking at a offense-first position like first base is very convenient when working with a limited sample of a month or so. I hope to separate the breakouts from the fake outs (credit) amongst the five first basemen that caught my eye the most in the first month.

Ben Rice

Thus far, Rice has surpassed all expectations by registering elite numbers against RHP while holding his own against same-side attacks. His pull-adjusted xWOBA is a staggering .397, his pulled flyball rate is 82nd percentile, his average exit velocity (EV) is 94.8 mph after raising his bat speed 3 mph. Concurrently, he spits on pitches even more than he did last year, chasing a microscopic 18.4% of the time: a combo of a truly mature hitter. That may make it surprising, then, that I’m not particularly convinced of his long-term success yet.

While his overall numbers are outstanding, his splits by pitch type are worrying. His performance against fastballs is insane - a .552 Savant xWOBA, 99.5 average EV, and 12% whiff rate indicate in conjunction that he will be feasting on them all year long. The problem is his performance elsewhere - a .327 xWOBA, 90 mph average EV, and a 21% whiff rate are solid against offspeed, but a .242 xWOBA, 84 mph average EV, and 54% whiff rate against breaking balls is just a killer. He only has 11 balls in play against them, but that’s partially because he can’t get bat to it in the first place. Additionally, the problem isn’t new; he had just a .296 xWOBA on breakers and .251 xWOBA on changeups in 2024, albeit with a more reasonable whiff rate on the former. While one has reason to believe it can be better, there hasn’t been any production there in two stints that encompass nearly half a season. Of his 13 MLB home runs, 12 are on fastballs. So far, it’s all heater, all the time.

Additionally, he has become far more passive at the plate, which may be hurting him despite the absolutely elite chase rate. The slightly lower chase rate has cost him 10% in-zone swing rate, and his groundball rate has risen 14% despite that extra swings selectivity. There will be some regression to the mean across the board, of course, but I think the exit velocities and number of fastballs to chew on will be regressing downward a lot faster than his flyball or whiff rates can go upward. His 55th percentile SEAGER thus far is about level with his 2024 Scranton mark, and significantly lower than his 2024 MLB high of 88th percentile. I’m not sure Rice can get away with so much passivity if he will be such a non-factor on slower stuff and lack the swing decisions to punish the in-zone mistakes. Additionally, he hasn't allowed Aaron Boone to give him a definitive stamp of approval to play full-time. As of this moment, his career wRC+ vs. LHP is 57, and he only clocks in a little better in 2025 at 74.

Can Ben Rice be a very good player? Yes. Has he demonstrated he can be so far? No. He will be force-fed tons of breaking balls soon enough, and his level will probably plummet with it toward simply above-average numbers. His pulled flyball approach plays to the Stadium, but I think a ‘Alex Bregman in his later Astro years’ profile (~125 wRC+) with better EVs and worse plate discipline in a largely-platooned role is a fantastic outcome for Rice long-term.

Tyler Soderstrom

Soderstrom improved in virtually every way entering 2025, which I always raise an eyebrow to instinctively. His most notable jump is in pulled flyball rate, from the 14th percentile (22nd in AAA) to the 61st, courtesy of a 13% jump in pull rate and an 8% drop in groundball rate. His K rate is down 4%, while his power numbers are up. Also, he doubled his xWOBA against breakers, which was the bane of his existence a year ago. What? It all feels a little too good to be true.

It goes without saying that I am not a Soderstrom hater. I think the power overall is legit, and he clearly is a well-disciplined hitter. People fairly compare him to Matt Olson, who had far less pedigree than Soderstrom before completely revolutionizing his game in the bigs. Soderstrom also looked more than capable last season, finishing with a 15% barrel rate and strong strikeout-to-walk ratio in around 50 games. I could see 35 HR and a with poor defense at peak for him, but that’s a long way off from his present .432 pull-adjusted xWOBA and offensive profile that looks like peak Yordan Alvarez. I think the groundball rate will tick back up to 45% or so and he’ll simply be a very good to great first baseman. Or third baseman,apparently.

Jonathan Aranda

Jon Aranda languished in Durham for several years, but 2025 has offered him the runway to be a frequent starter for the Rays for the first time. So far, he has gripped that opportunity by the horns. Most captivating is the combination of a 3% decrease in groundball rate with a 3 mph increase in average EV, although that may fall into the "too good to be true" camp that Soderstrom currently resides in. Additionally, he has improved his swing decisions from below-average to elite by adding a lot of in-zone aggression, a change that should largely be able to stick. One can also hope for pull rate improvement, which currently polls more than 5% lower than his career norms. If the slight increase in flyballs can stick, he can be extremely effective down the right field line.

Now, the uglier parts of his game. Defensively, he’s limited to 1B, and while he will likely stick there so long as Tre’ Morgan is in Montgomery or Durham, he sequestered at DH thereafter. He’s a complete zero on the bases, and his “improved” 45% groundball rate still will create plenty of double plays. He did play against a good amount of LHP in the minors and has been selectively placed in the lineup against big-league LHP thus far into 2025, but he appears to be average against them at best. With the Rays’ strong platooning preferences, a full-strength Rays lineup probably leaves him as a bench option against southpaws. Long term, I’d hope for him to fill a platoon DH role at the level of Kerry Carpenter or Joc Pederson. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, but leaves little flexibility for the Rays when utilizing him.

Spencer Torkelson

I’m going to declare it: he’s here. Torkelson has made some subtle adjustments to his game, but with a surprisingly strong foundation already in place from prior years, he looks poised to deliver on his first-overall pick hype.

What is that foundation, you ask? A groundball rate under 35% and a pull rate over 45% in each of the past three years. That means a pulled flyball rate of over 24% each year, and so far this year, he has a 30% groundball rate, 49% pull rate, and 34% pulled flyball rate. That’s an elite assortment of metrics over almost two cumulative seasons of data. Additionally, his plate discipline remains well above average. His walk rate likely won’t stick at 13%, but his SEAGER is around the 75th percentile, better than it was in 2024 and slightly worse than his good 2023. Unlike someone like Rice, his improvements don’t originate from increased power, something Tork has never lacked. His average EV is only up 1 mph from 2023, and the 90th percentile EV may be underselling him, if anything, at the 69th percentile.

Torkelson’s extremely orange cluster on the elevated pull-side makes him an offensive force. Graphic courtesy of @TJStats, based on the original design by @Blandalytics.

The one flaw in his game is the fastball dependency, a common refrain for these power hitters. Historically, he has only performed against them, never getting close to posting a Savant xWOBA above. 300 on breaking pitches or offspeed across a full year. Of course, he’s never had a complete year of success, either. This year, he’s surpassed that benchmark in both pitch groups, but the whiff rates don't appear to be significantly improved. I think if he simply can be passable against the soft stuff and crush fastballs, he can be an All-Star-level first baseman more often than not with his great skillset.

Kyle Manzardo

Perhaps shocking some of you, Kyle Manzardo is my favorite player of the lot long-term. I care most about a player’s process, and Manzardo has one that trumps the vast majority of players in the majors. There’s a lot of Isaac Paredes here, from tons of pulled flyballs to great swing decisions that congruently generate high walk rates and quality contact. The swing decisions are the one thing that hasn't fully transferred to the majors yet, but I'm confident they will; his current 50th percentile is already closer to his Triple-A mark than the poor 16th percentile he put up in 2024. Manzardo is more EV-oriented than Paredes, which also opens the door for production opposite-way with a barrel rate above single digits. For reference, Paredes’ career high in barrel rate was 6.4%. Manzardo’s barrel rate, meanwhile, is nearly double that at the time of writing. Manzardo has a feel for the barrel that Paredes simply doesn’t, with the judgment to weaponize it to its fullest extent.

Manzardo’s main offseason adjustment was chasing 7% less at no cost (improving his SEAGER by 60 percentiles), a number that could stick around given it’s in line with his 2024 days in Triple-A Columbus. In that same tenure with the Clippers, he also hit 20 HR in 83 games and had as many walks as strikeouts. That’ll play. His contact rates remain a little below his career expectations, but there’s nothing that suggests that won’t revert to normal. His present groundball and pulled flyball rates of 32% and 31% respectively are elite.

He also seems to have fixed a hole against breaking balls, an Achilles heel for him that contributed to his disappointing major league stint and a severe drop-off in prospect rankings. Thus far, he’s fared far better against LHP than RHP, “reverse splits” that should correct themselves with time. In the minors, he was equally capable against both sides, a great trait for an offensively-oriented lefty to keep themselves in the lineup. A peak of 30 HR and a 130-140 wRC+ would be a welcome sight in Cleveland and is well within the possibility for this year already.

Conclusion (in order of preference)

(1) Kyle Manzardo - The approach is extremely refined already across the board, including no left-on-left problems. Once his splits vs RHP work themselves out, his stats will reflect that reality. I’d call him a left-handed Isaac Paredes (30 HR, 130 wRC+) with more general power, less contact. It's a tight race with Soderstrom; Manzardo has the floor, Soderstrom has the ceiling.

(2) Tyler Soderstrom - One dreams for Matt Olson at his best. I’d expect the pull and groundball rates to regress a bit, but he should be able to improve a smidge across the board. No reason to believe he won’t be an occasional All-Star at worst.

(3) Spencer Torkelson - I think he’s finally here. Has shown modest improvements across the board while maintaining swing decisions. One has room to believe it’ll stick around with how reminiscent it is of his great second half in 2023. One issue is his reliance on punishing fastballs, but he’ll probably always earn his meal primarily off heaters. I could see him reach 2021-22 Pete Alonso in the best of times (140 wRC+).

(4) Ben Rice - Arroz could use some more work with a “heater-or-bust” approach that will be exploited soon. The zone control is legit, but whether he’s a well-rounded top-of-the-order hitter or a strict platoon middle-order hitter is TBD. He desperately needs to get the ball off the turf more.

(5) Jonathan Aranda - Strict platoon. Mashing at the level of Kerry Carpenter or peak Joc Pederson in exclusively strong-side matchups would be a great outcome for someone who spent the majority of the last several years at Triple-A, despite great performances (146 wRC+ in 1000 PA) there. Being able to man first consistently would give flexibility in the post-Yandy Diaz, pre-Tre Morgan era. Rice gets the edge as the more likely everyday player, but their skillsets are similar.

Sources

BaseballSavant

BaseballReference

PitcherList

FanGraphs

TJStats/Blandalytics